A lot to like: Stars still improving, rounding out at halfway point of season

The Stars are a work in progress just past the midway point of the season, and that can be a good thing.

This team is obviously talented – they rank third in scoring and potentially have six players headed for 30 goals – but they also have yet to play their best hockey and could be much better defensively and at the details of the game. There is opportunity hiding in every corner of the ice.

From the top, this team looks a lot like last season’s. Dallas ranks seventh in points percentage at .655. It was eighth last season at .659. It ranks third in goals per game at 3.64 and was seventh last season at 3.43. It has spent much of the season in the top 10 in specialty teams after finishing third on the penalty kill and fifth on the power play in 2022-23. It’s one of the best faceoff teams after leading the league last year.

So there is a lot of consistency in what Pete DeBoer and the coaching staff have brought to the table since coming on in 2022.

All of that said, there are some areas of concern. Dallas ranks 15th in goals against average (3.05) and 16th in save percentage (.899) after sitting third (2.62) and sixth (.912) at the end of last season. That’s a significant drop.

A big reason, of course, is the fact that Jake Oettinger missed a month of hockey due to a groin injury. The 25-year-old established himself as one of the best goalies in the NHL last season, so his absence was felt. But even before Oettinger was hurt, his numbers were down. He has a 2.96 GAA this season after posting a 2.33 last year. He is at .902 on save percentage after stopping pucks at a .919 clip last year. Now, some of that is because of the team in front of him. In trying to become a better scoring team, the Stars have slipped in their defensive coverage. In trying to create offensive potential throughout the lineup, the lads in Victory Green have taken a few more chances.

That’s not a bad thing . . . if they can find the right balance.

A big part of this transition to offensive hockey is the season of Matt Duchene. Signed as a free agent after being bought out by Nashville, Duchene ranks second on the team in scoring with 39 points (14 goals, 25 assists) and he has helped boost the fortunes of linemates Tyler Seguin and Mason Marchment. Seguin went from 0.66 points per game to 0.79, while Marchment has jumped from 0.46 to 0.79. They have completely restructured how DeBoer deploys lines, and the irony is that Marchment leads the Stars in plus-minus at plus-16 and Duchene is second at plus-13.

So while, visually, it looks like a riskier way to play hockey, statistically, it seems very manageable.

And that’s part of the reason for optimism. In adding Duchene (and Sam Steel and Craig Smith), the Stars are a more dangerous team. In looking at the problems in GAA, the talent is there to improve.

Just a game after Oettinger returned, Scott Wedgewood left with an injury, but that’s part of the adversity that can make the Stars better. Yes, pushing Oettinger to play a lot now could be a bad thing if Wedgewood is out for a while. But, at the same time, trusting Matt Murray could be exactly what the team needs. They didn’t trust him last season, but he is a 25-year-old in his second season of pro hockey, so now is the time to see what he can do.

That same philosophy goes for the young defensemen. Miro Heiskanen is out with a lower body injury, and while the team still is unsure of a return date, it is easy to speculate that they will wait until after a lengthy All-Star break to get him back in a game (Feb. 6 at Buffalo). That means they have to trust Nils Lundkvist to play every game and Thomas Harley to soak up extra minutes. Harley, 22, is averaging 24 minutes a game with Heiskanen out. Lundkvist, 23, is at around 18 minutes. Both are getting key playing time on the power play.

As we look toward the trade deadline, the general feeling is the Stars need an upgrade on defense, maybe a right-handed partner for Heiskanen on the top pairing. Seeing what Harley and Lundkvist can do gives the front office a ton of information as they head into a pretty big decision, so sometimes it’s good to force the coach’s hand in trusting certain players.

Now, that could also blow up on a team. Both Winnipeg and Colorado are playing great hockey and currently rank first and fourth in points percentage. That means Dallas might start on the road in the first round of the playoffs and could have to go through two of the top four teams in the league just to get to where they got last season. It’s a daunting thought. As well as the team has handled injuries and adversity so far, they have had to scuffle to get points. They are not playing at their highest level yet, and that’s a harsh reality if you really do have serious designs on winning the Stanley Cup.

But because there are 40 games left, you can take all of that with a grain of caramel salt latte.

They have work to do. They know they have work to do. As good as the Duchene line has played, the trios of Jason Robertson-Roope Hintz-Joe Pavelski and Jamie Benn-Wyatt Johnston-Evgenii Dadonov can be better in the second half. As impressive as Wedgewood has been in taking a major step forward in his career, the goaltending numbers for the team leave room for improvement.

As tough as fans can be at times, the group of defensemen can be greatly improved with one player, and the improvement of two youngsters. Mix that with one of the deepest forward groups in the league and the potential for netminding that can be as good as any in the NHL, and you have to be optimistic.

This is a work in progress, but it will be fun watching the construction. When you think about the first half so far, “fun” might be the most appropriate word that comes to mind.

This story was not subject to the approval of the National Hockey League or Dallas Stars Hockey Club.

Mike Heika is a Senior Staff Writer for DallasStars.com and has covered the Stars since 1994. Follow him on Twitter @MikeHeika.