Insider debate: Recapping free agency, NHL Draft

Since free agency opened on July 13, the Stars have signed a handful of players highlighted by forward Mason Marchment. The club also signed defensemen Colin Miller and Will Butcher, and forward Riley Barber. They also made six selections at the 2022 NHL Draft in early July, highlighted by first-round pick Lian Bichsel. DallasStars.com senior staff writer Mike Heika and Stars radio analyst Bruce LeVine recap all the action from the past few weeks.

1. The Stars made a significant signing on the first day of free agency with the addition of Marchment. What excites you about this signing, and did it catch you off guard when it was announced?
Mike Heika - DallasStars.com Senior Staff Writer:The decision took me by surprise because I really felt the team would focus on defense with its free agent dollars, but I understand the attraction of Marchment.
One, both Pete DeBoer and assistant coach Steve Spott are very familiar with Marchment, and they should be able to help him take the next step in his career. Two, he's a big body and should be able to give the Stars a physical element they've been lacking in the forward group. And three, his analytics in Florida say he's a player who helps make his teammates better.
Now, all of that said, Marchment's getting a huge raise from a cap hit of $767,500 on a two-way deal to a guaranteed $4.5 million for four years and he'll have to be able to deal with raised expectations. He had 47 points (18 goals, 29 assists) in 54 games last season, but he has just 91 games of NHL experience at age 27, so he's either very fresh or still very green. We'll see, but I know the Stars believe they're making a great investment in the future here.
Bruce LeVine - Dallas Stars Radio Analyst:Unlike Mike, signing Marchment wasn't a surprise to me. I'd been hearing rumblings that Stars scouts and pro personnel really liked what he had accomplished in Florida as a bottom-six forward and believed he could do more given the right opportunity. What did surprise me was the four-year term. This is quite an investment for a player with only 91 career games under his belt. If the UFA rumor mill is correct, Marchment had other offers for a four-year deal. The Stars had to be willing to absorb that length of contract or lose out on a player they really like.
Marchment is also a player that checks boxes from both sides of the aisle. Analytics people rave about his game and the data backs up their assessments. For people that love "the eye test," Marchment also passes with flying colors. One NHL scout said he "plays with an edge, decent skater with a touch around the net. Stars got a good one!" Another NHL talent evaluator had the same sentiments: "Competes hard, goes to the hard areas to score. Has some pest to his game and will back up his teammates."
The big concern is health. Marchment has yet to play 60 games in a season at any time in his professional career. The Stars need him to be contributing consistently and the only way that happens is to be on the ice for at least 60 games. Marchment had very good numbers playing for an offensive juggernaut in Florida last season. To expect the same output in Dallas for the 2022-23 season might be unrealistic. This signing will need to be judged over the course of four seasons. When the likes of Wyatt Johnston, Mavrik Bourque and Logan Stankoven join the team, the offensive dynamics will change. The expectation is Marchment will be a big part of the Stars' forwards no matter what the lineup may look like for several years to come.
2. When the market opened, a lot of the talk surrounding the Stars zeroed in on defense. There was also a brief period when it seemed like John Klingberg might circle back and re-sign. While the Stars added Miller and Butcher to the mix, did you think Jim Nill was going to go after bigger game on the blueline had Marchment not been signed?
Heika:Definitely. Both Miller and Butcher are risky bets. Miller has battled injuries and was a healthy scratch in Buffalo last season. Butcher also has been a healthy scratch. That's a little concerning. Bottom line, either Miller or Butcher will likely be on the third pairing on the Stars, unless the coaching staff can unlock something that hasn't been seen in recent seasons.
Miller is a right-handed skilled defenseman, so he's a good fit, but he has to step up and play. Butcher was actually coached by new Stars assistant coach Alain Nasreddine in New Jersey, so that might be a key to unlocking his abilities. But the bottom line is the Stars need to find a way to replace Klingberg by getting more from Miro Heiskanen, Esa Lindell, Ryan Suter, Thomas Harley and Jani Hakanpää. Harley might be the key to everything, as clearing out top-four minutes could give him the opportunity to take the next step in his career.
LeVine:The Stars had to straddle the line between replacing a valuable defenseman and not destroying any salary cap flexibility for the future. Most veteran options came at too high a price either contract-wise or trade-wise. Both Miller and Butcher fall under the "low-risk, high reward" category if either can find their game again.
Miller is a fast skater and his slapshot has been clocked at 105.5 MPH. This is a good starting point, but ever since his outstanding first year with Vegas (10 goals, 31 assists and 41 points in 82 games), he's been on the decline due to injuries. A great hockey mind once said, "the problem with injury-prone players is they tend to get hurt a lot." Miller will have to reverse his recent trend to be successful in Dallas where his right-handed shot is desperately needed.
Butcher needs to rediscover his game and that won't be easy. The best way for the Stars to fill the gap is an even greater role for Heiskanen. On a nightly basis, Dallas fans watch defensemen such as Cale Makar and Roman Josi become the most important players for Central Division rivals. DeBoer has repeatedly stated that Heiskanen's a great player and believes the talented blueliner has another level he can reach. If the new bench bosses can unlock that higher game, Heiskanen becomes a Norris Trophy candidate and plugs many holes on defense in all situations.
The biggest surprise of free agency is that Klingberg has yet to sign a contact. Offensive minded, right-handed defensemen are almost impossible to land, yet Klingberg remains available. Shocking to see how this has played out.
3. A lot of teams are up against the salary cap, and the Stars only have a certain amount of money to use on contract extensions for RFAs Jake Oettinger and Jason Robertson. What type of deals do you expect each player to get?
Heika: I've gone back and forth on Robertson. I thought they might be able to work a bridge deal for a couple of seasons that would leave time for a longer-term deal later on, but the Blues signed Robert Thomas to an eight-year extension for a little more than $8 million annually, and that makes sense to me. Thomas is also 23 and has more experience, but he's coming off a year in which he had 77 points in 72 games. Robertson had 78 in 74 games, but also had 41 goals, so that does raise the stakes. It'll be a very interesting debate.
Oettinger's in an interesting place because so many young goalies haven't fared well after signing a fairly big deal. Because of that, my guess is both sides will stick to shorter on term, possibly three or four years. The going rate for a good goalie right now is about $5 million, and I think he might be in that category. I could also see him signing for two years at $4 million with the hope he could strike it much bigger on his next deal. Either way, I think the Stars have room for both players.
LeVine: In the entire history of the Dallas Stars, it takes four fingers to count the number of players to score 40 goals in a season. (Mike Modano, Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and now Robertson). Natural goal scorers are a rare commodity, and these players get paid. Much like signing Heiskanen to a long-term deal, Robertson fits into the same category - a supreme talent that can't be easily replaced. The price to lock up Robertson will never be lower than it is today. Robertson just turned 23 which means he has a long way to go before Father Time starts to play those nasty tricks that eventually gets the better of everyone. Maybe Nill can save some money in exchange for the maximum eight-year term because 8x8 seems to be a solid landing area for both sides.
In the case of Oettinger, a shorter-term deal is the better option. Oettinger was the hero in the playoffs, but he did have some tough moments during the final few months of the regular season. Projecting long-term growth for a young goaltender isn't an exact science. Tampa signed Andrei Vasilevskiy to a three-year bridge contract, and it paid off handsomely. Philadelphia signed Carter Hart to a three-year bridge contract, and the response hasn't been as good. At age 23, the Stars need to be cautious in regard to injuries or regression in play. If Oettinger stays on his current trajectory, in three seasons he'll be in line for a huge payday and Nill will be very happy to meet that price. Right now, a bridge contract in the four million range could be an acceptable compromise.
4. Do you foresee any of the Stars' top prospects making the opening night roster?
Heika:I definitely think Johnston deserves every chance to make the team. He's currently battling a minor injury, so the summer and preseason will determine what happens. Does he play in the World Juniors in August? How does he look if he plays at the Traverse City tournament in September? Does he look good under the new coaching staff in preseason? And finally, do they give him a tryout in the NHL before determining if they want to send him back to the OHL? It's a lot to digest, but it's also good that Johnston will be tested before they have to make a final decision.
My guess is Stankoven goes back to Kamloops and Bourque starts in the AHL, but we'll see. I do believe that Ty Dellandrea has earned a real chance to play in the NHL this season. He looked great in Game 7 against Calgary, and the team must replace Alexander Radulov, Michael Raffl and Vladislav Namestnikov. Dellandrea seems like the perfect candidate to do that.
LeVine: Since Mike and I are of a similar age and have similar backgrounds in musical tastes, I'll submit for your approval a song by the legendary British group The Who. Roger Daltrey famously sang "The Kids are Alright." For Dallas to be successful, this will have to apply to the Stars as well. Let's work from the oldest prospects to the newest. Dellandrea was hurt badly by his time on the COVID Taxi Squad. His game and habits regressed by not playing on a regular basis. It took half of last season in the AHL to return to the proper level of expectations. Dellandrea played well in Game 7 vs. Calgary. I fully expect him to be in the lineup come Opening Night. Harley will be counted on to fill holes in the defense. While he'll have some growing pains, the Stars need him to step up and seize the opportunity.
As for the "Big Three" prospects up front, any one of them could play their way onto the roster as they'll be given every chance to succeed. Johnston should have the best opportunity, but he's nursing an injury suffered during the OHL playoffs. I'd expect him to skip the World Juniors to have more healing time and be fully healthy for Traverse City, Stars training camp and the preseason. Based on his overall two-way game and high offensive upside, Johnston is in the best position to earn the minimum nine NHL games before a decision has to be made whether to keep him in the Stars lineup or send him back to Windsor.
At 20 years of age, Bourque has graduated out of the CHL. He impressed some in camp last season but has yet to prove how he'll succeed against older and stronger competition. He'll need to make a major impression to begin the season in Dallas. Bourque will likely start in the AHL with Texas, but it might be a short stay in Cedar Park if he can put up points and handle his own in the defensive zone.
It's hard to believe, but the player deemed to be the best in all of Canadian Junior Hockey - Stankoven - is probably the longest shot to make the Stars out of camp. Look for the WHL MVP to play for Team Canada at the World Juniors in August, maybe Traverse City a few weeks later and then Stars training camp. That's a lot of hockey in a short amount of time. The plan is to put Stankoven against higher levels of talent, but he'll most likely go back to the WHL where he'll play for the Memorial Cup (Kamloops will host) and gain some extra muscle.
5. Let's recap the draft. The Stars came away with six selections, including four defensemen highlighted by first-rounder Lian Bichsel. Were you surprised the club went heavy on defensemen, especially right-handed shooters? Of the six picks, who do you have your eyes on the most?
Heika: The book on Bichsel is that he probably will be a longer-term investment and could take some time, but that he has big upside, so my guess is he'll get plenty of time to develop. My focus will be on the three right-handed defensemen who all seem to have great skill. I'm particularly intrigued by 19-year-old Gavin White, who might be able to step forward more quickly. I like the fact the Stars targeted right-handed defensemen specifically from the OHL (White and second-rounder Christian Kyrou). They've had success there and they seem to know what they're looking for. Every draft is a risk, but the Stars have hit paydirt before by going after skill.
LeVine:A few years ago, Dallas had virtually no forwards in the pipeline and made it a point to target that area of weakness. The Stars felt similarly about defense and made it a draft priority to find blueliners. I've been impressed with the Stars' first-round pick ever since seeing him in Plano last year. At the 2021 U18s, one scout said Bichsel was a "freak of nature." Luckily, his team selected after Dallas. Aside from the obvious size (6-foot-5, 225 pounds) and his physicality, what's most eye opening is Bichsel's ability to progress at every level so far. At 16, he played on the Swiss U18 team and immediately established himself as a dominating force on an outmanned squad in international play. Looking to improve his game, the teenager moved to Sweden, was promoted to the top league and learned how to compete against grown men. Since he was drafted outside of the CHL, there are no restrictions on where he can play developmentally. When the Stars feel he's ready, a move to North America awaits with no provisions attached.
Dallas has had good luck with second-round picks who moved up from the midterm to final rankings according to Central Scouting. In 2015, Roope Hintz turned out to be a solid pick, and in 2017 Robertson jumped 20 slots in the ratings. What Kyrou did was virtually impossible. The right-handed defenseman vaulted 131 places over the final four months and became a second-round selection. His continued improvement should be monitored closely. Was this a one-time jump or an indication of better things ahead? We shall see.
6. To finish this off, we saw some big names sign with other teams once free agency opened (Johnny Gaudreau with Columbus, Vincent Trocheck with New York, etc.) But what did you make of the blockbuster trade between the Flames and Panthers?
Heika: Calgary was pretty much backed into a corner and made the most of it. Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar are good players, and both seem to want to go to Canada and play there long-term. That's huge for the Flames, who lost Gaudreau for nothing. Matthew Tkachuk is a fantastic player, and he should be able to help the Panthers, so everyone wins. That's how you want trades to work.
LeVine:Calgary GM Brad Treliving made the best of a bad situation. The Flames rolled the dice with Gaudreau and lost. It couldn't happen again with Tkachuk. If Calgary can sign Huberdeau and Weegar, then it turns out to be a pretty good deal while Florida gets the player it coveted. It'll be interesting to see if this trade is the blueprint for other teams in similar situations. With the flat salary cap, hard decisions will have to be made.
This story was not subject to the approval of the National Hockey League or Dallas Stars Hockey Club.