Hey Heika: Draft picks, free agency moves, and the future of the Stars defense

Howdy folks, nice to be chatting at this time of year.

Lots of stuff going on with the Stars, and we might even have changes while this offering is being published. Bottom line, the Stars need to get some contracts signed before Monday, and that means things could be quite active at the draft this weekend.

Dallas has traded away four of its picks: second round went to Calgary for Chris Tanev, the third-round pick and sixth-round pick to Nashville for last year’s third-round pick, and the fourth-round pick to Detroit for Vladislav Namestnikov). That means there is a lot riding on the first-round pick (29^th overall).

The good thing is that previous drafts have loaded the system with great players and great prospects. In fact, a big reason the team might need to dive too deeply into free agency this year is because the draft has provided a nice group of affordable young players who are ready to step in.

So, let’s get to your questions and see if we can solve anything:

@AlanBrown2023: How do the Stars fix the defense? Suter buyout, Nils trade, FA signing or trade?

HEIKA: Reports are that the Stars are expected to buy out Ryan Suter, and the guess here is they use that money to re-sign Chris Tanev, Thomas Harley, and Nils Lundkvist. Tanev is an unrestricted free agent who had a salary cap hit of $4.5 million last season. Harley ($863,333) and Lundkvist ($975,000) are restricted free agents. All three will get raises, and that will eat into the cap space available on defense. The guess is Jani Hakanpää is allowed to walk in free agency. That means Miro Heiskanen, Esa Lindell, Tanev, Harley and Lundkvist would be the core on defense. You can then add Alex Petrovic, who is right-handed and played well in his seven playoff games, or rookie Lian Bichsel, who split time between the AHL and Sweden last season. If not, Petrovic could be a great seventh defenseman until Bichsel gets used to the North American game.

@aliciaadams1974: Are the stars keeping Matt Duchene?

HEIKA: The good news is that it seems both sides want to work out a deal. The tricky part is there are other moving pieces. First and foremost, the Stars need to get a deal done with UFA Chris Tanev. Not only do they need his presence on defense, but they also need a right-hander with the belief that Jani Hakanpää might not be returning. If they get Tanev signed to a contract extension, then Duchene becomes the next priority. The 33-year-old was a perfect fit last season, as he had 65 points (25 goals, 40 assists) in 80 games while playing 16:45 per game. After being bought out by Nashville, he signed a one-year deal with the Stars for $3 million. That allowed Duchene to establish a market, which means he should get a raise, but it also allowed him to find a home, which seems equally important to him. Depending on what Tanev gets, Duchene will likely be in a place where he has to balance those two goals. Yes, his stats say he should make more than $3 million, but if the Stars can’t offer much more, would he choose to chase the Cup someplace else or try to rerack with the Stars and try again. It’s an interesting dilemma, but it seems both sides understand all the issues here.

@dtxhockeyguy: Is conditioning an issue the organization is concerned with at all?

HEIKA: The Stars before last season did a complete revamp of their conditioning staff and really liked the results. They added Dr. Troy Van Biezen as Director of Sports Performance, as well as the group of Mike Donoghue, Matthew Crawley, and D.J. Almonte. They used a lot more technology in assessing athletes and creating training programs and believe that made a big difference. It is what it is, but when Los Angeles won and Vegas lost on the last day, it very much changed the Stars’ path. Had they played the Kings in the Round 1, it could have been a very different story. Instead, they needed seven games against the very big Golden Knights, and that was wearing. Mix in the fact Stars coach Pete DeBoer decided to basically rely on five defensemen (Nils Lundkvist averaged 4:28 in 12 games) and you could see the wear and tear on players like Miro Heiskanen and Thomas Harley. I think the lack of scoring from players like Joe Pavelski, Matt Duchene and Roope Hintz also took a mental toll. I think the organization is in great shape in terms of conditioning, but it also learned some lessons on how to manage the playoffs.

@starringkersy: Is there a possibility that Alex Petrovic could be resigned before free agency?

HEIKA: Yes, the Stars would like to get Petrovic re-signed. He did a great job in the playoffs and that could open some doors for him. Petrovic is 32, listed at 6-5, 208 and is right-handed. He could fill the role that Jani Hakanpää did last season and probably at a lower price. He was an NHL regular for about five seasons with the Panthers and has logged 264 career NHL games. However, he has been in the AHL for the past five seasons and logged 70 games with the Texas Stars in 2023-24. He could be a great seventh defenseman in the style of Joel Hanley, only with more size and physicality.

@SkyMaverick21: Who are your favorite free agents and draft picks?

HEIKA: The name you hear most associated with the Stars in the draft is forward Ryder Ritchie. He’s a talented right-handed shot who had 44 points (19 goals, 26 assists) in 47 games for Prince Albert.  He’d be a longer-term project, which you expect at 29, but would be a solid pick. The other name I’ve seen in mock drafts is Julius Miettinen. He’s a 6-3, 201-pound forward from Finland who had 67 points (31 goals, 36 assists) in 66 games for Everett in the WHL. Two defensemen to watch are Leo Sahlin Wallenius and Eric Emery, but both might be off the board by the time the Stars pick. Emery is an interesting one. He played for the US National Development Team and has tested very well. As far as free agents go, the best two choices are probably Tanev and Duchene. Both seem happy in Dallas, and both are good fits. If they have cap space left over, I’m curious if they might look at some players that Pete DeBoer has a history with. Both William Carrier and Alec Martinez are UFAs, and DeBoer coached them in Vegas.

@adlgator86: With the Jets re-signing pending UFA RHD Dylan DeMelo to a 4 yr $4.9M AAV deal, what does that do to the Stars’ attempts to re-sign Tanev?

HEIKA: It’s a very good comparable for Tanev. DeMelo is 31 and Tanev is 34, so that does make a four-year deal riskier. But the guess is Tanev will have plenty of offers to leave. Dallas has a very tight cap situation, so it would love less than $4.9 and fewer than four years, but it’s probably a good target for about the limit of what it could afford to keep Tanev.

@taylorsstern: What are the odds the stars increase their number of Finns?

HEIKA: Sadly, it looks like they might lose a significant Finn in Jani Hakanpää. The big defenseman might be washed out in the need to make the cap fit and clear ice time for Lian Bichsel. Maybe the team can draft forward Julius Miettinen.

@oyb_hi: How serious do you think the front office is about improving the blue line? If we can't afford Tanev, what are our best options there?

HEIKA: I think they want to, but I also think it will be hard with the increase in contracts. Like the forward group with the improvement of players like Jason Robertson, Wyatt Johnston and Logan Stankoven, the improvement on defense might have to come from the maturing of Harley, Lundkvist and Bichsel.

@MAKARoland: What do you think is a great deal for Harley?

HEIKA: My guess is they push for a one, two or three-year bridge deal to keep costs down. That said, Harley had 15 goals and 32 assists for 47 points in 79 games. He also was a plus-28. Players who have hit in that range to end their rookie contract typically get paid $4 million-plus, even on bridge deals, so Harley is in for a big raise.

@EYeezus69: How likely is Tanev re-signing in Dallas and who do you think the Stars will target on the market during July 1st?

HEIKA: He likes it in Dallas and the Stars really need him, but there could be a lot of interest in free agency. If the Stars sign Chris Tanev, give Thomas Harley his raise and find a way to keep Matt Duchene, I’m not sure they have a lot of room for free agents.

@SebastianStars5: Any chance the Stars draft a goalie in the first round?

HEIKA: I can say almost for sure, no. They have a 25-year-old Jake Oettinger, and he should be able to hold that position for some time. In addition, goalies are becoming like running backs in the NFL or relief pitchers in baseball. Teams figure they can scramble and find something that fills. I think the Stars already took their first-round goalie.

@sch11midt: Probably an obvious one, but besides Chris Tanev, who are some RHD that the Stars could target that won't cost them Stankoven or Mavrik Bourque?

HEIKA: If they don’t get Tanev, there is a nice group of right-handed defensemen who could help. Among those who could test free agency are Sean Walker (10-19--29 in 61 games with Philadelphia and Colorado), Justin Schultz (7-19--26 in 33 games with Seattle) and Tyler Myers (5-24--29 in 77 games with Vancouver). Other possible choices are Brett Pesce and Brenden Dillon (who is a lefty, but physical).

This story was not subject to the approval of the National Hockey League or Dallas Stars Hockey Club.

Mike Heika is a Senior Staff Writer for DallasStars.com and has covered the Stars since 1994. Follow him on Twitter @MikeHeika.