On the Radar: Avoiding the ditch

The Stars have been a bit of a mixed bag lately. On one hand, they head into Wednesday's contest with six wins in their last eight games. On the other hand, they've suffered two lopsided losses over their last three, and didn't look particularly great in the lone victory. Regardless, the win came over a St. Louis team they had been chasing all season. It featured terrific goaltending, opportunistic scoring, and a last-minute hold that vaulted them into the top three in the Central Division. It certainly wasn't one of their best performances of the year, but it was one of their biggest wins.
Their ability to get it, even at a time when they are not playing their best, has been one of the stories of the Dallas season.

The Stars have showcased a lot of different skills this year. One has been their ability to bounce back from defeats. They've done it as well as anyone in the NHL. The Stars season-long winless streak is only three games. That's tied for the shortest in the league. Even early in the year, when they were adjusting to all the changes and trying to find their game, Dallas avoided losing skids. From the outset, Ken Hitchcock has talked about the importance of that. He calls it staying out of a ditch.
During their few winless skids, several games featured OT or shootout losses, ensuring that at least the Stars were still picking up points. When the losses have come in 60 minutes, the Stars have responded extremely well. Dallas is 13-5-2 this year when following a regulation loss. That translates to a .700 record, the sixth-best in the NHL in that situation. Through four and a half months, there are only five instances where the Stars have lost back-to-back games in regulation. More recently, it has only happened once in the last 30 games.

All year long, the Stars have managed to turn out of a skid before it turns into a crash. They now need to continue that down the stretch, because more than anything else going forward, it is the key to a Stars postseason berth.
This week Dallas will officially pass the three-quarter mark of the schedule, and as the finish line gets closer, one harsh reality becomes more and more certain. There are going to be some good hockey teams missing out on the postseason.
Based on the current standings, the final wild-card team in the West is projected to finish with 97 points. The highest-ranking team to miss the playoffs is projected to finish at 95 points. To put that in perspective, last season, the Nashville Predators, who stormed their way to the Stanley Cup Final, finished the season with 94 points. Based on these projections, that team wouldn't make the playoffs this year. They wouldn't even finish as the next in line.
Of course, these are projections. It's possible for those lines to move up or down. Yet, based on what we have already seen along with numbers from past seasons, a playoff cut line of somewhere around 95-97 points seems reasonable, if not likely. So again, no matter where it falls, some good teams won't make it.

With that in mind, let's examine what it would take for the Stars to get there. Through 59 games, Dallas has 72 points. They are 13 games over .500 and on pace to finish the season with 100 points on the nose. There are 23 games to play, leaving 46 remaining points available to Dallas. If the Stars play exactly .500 hockey for the rest of the season, they would finish with 95 points. That would likely put them right around the amount needed to clinch a playoff spot, but still may not be enough.
However, that's merely playing .500 hockey. For every game over .500 they play, add another point. One game over gets them to 96. Two games to 97. Three games is 98. You get the point. Conversely, games under .500 would move them the other way - below 95 and likely out of contention. While no one knows the exact number it will take to get there, when you look at it in terms of .500 hockey, there is a pretty simple formula that gets the Stars to the playoffs under any circumstance.
Avoid a losing streak.
The Stars are going to lose games. Everyone will. They are going to lose more than a few, actually. But they can manage losses. It's a string of them that threatens to be fatal. Say a team loses four straight games in regulation. All of a sudden, it takes six games over .500 to match what used to be two games over. With fewer games to pull it off, no less. As long as that stretch of losses is avoided, the goal remains much more attainable. Especially for a team as good as the Stars.

Dallas is hardly in a comfortable position. No one in the West is. However, of the pack of teams fighting for their playoff lives, they do sit near the top. Because of where they are, the Stars don't need to rely on any help. They just need to keep doing what they've been doing all year. Don't let too much time pass without picking up points.
Naturally, the Stars have their sights set much higher than .500 hockey the rest of the way. They have been one of the best teams in the league since Thanksgiving. They have worked extremely hard for their current spot in the Central's top three. They want to keep climbing to try and chase down the division's top teams. They want to recalibrate after a couple of bad losses. They want to get back to the style of play that has made them such a tough opponent for most of this year. Their plan is not just to make it to the playoffs, but also be at their best once they do. In order to do that, they need to do better than just trade wins and losses equally.
However, as much as each win brings them closer to accomplishing those goals, it does something else at the same time. Every point or two gained is another night of side-stepping a potential skid that can derail a season. As long as they are collecting them with regularity, they will stay ahead of the group trying to swallow them.
So far the Stars have done an exceptional job of staying out of a Hitch ditch. If they can do it for six more weeks, there will once again be playoff hockey in Dallas come April.
This story was not subject to approval of the National Hockey League or Dallas Stars Hockey Club.
Josh Bogorad is the Studio Host on Stars television broadcasts. He can be seen 30 minutes before face-off on 'Stars Live' and immediately after games all season long on Fox Sports Southwest. Follow him on Twitter @JoshBogorad.