'We've done our homework': Stars GM Jim Nill discusses lottery outcome

The draft lottery is typically a non-event…until it isn't.
The NHL's engineered lottery on Wednesday changed very little about the structure of the NHL's 2021 draft July 23-24 -- with Seattle moving up to second overall and Anaheim falling from second to third -- but the possibility of change was definitely etched onto the faces of the general managers.

Stars GM Jim Nill had a welp expression when it was announced that Dallas had the 14th overall pick, pulling out his earphones and shutting down his interest for the night. Dallas had just a 1.4 percent chance to win the lottery, so it wasn't much of a surprise when the Stars stayed put. Still, Nill knew the possible impact had Dallas had its number called. The Stars in 2017 moved from eighth to third and snagged franchise defenseman Miro Heiskanen in the process.
"It changes your franchise when you do win," he said shortly after the lottery concluded. "That's why the lottery is in place because it really can change what happens to a team and it creates some excitement for everyone. Now, the league has made some adjustments, and nobody really moved up this year, but there's real tension on a night like this."

And while the Stars won't have as good a chance of getting a player who could change their fortunes, the event was a reminder of just how important the draft can be. Dallas this season saw huge contributions from Jason Robertson (39th overall in 2017) and Jake Oettinger (26th overall in 2017), who joined the likes of Roope Hintz (49th overall in 2015) and Heiskanen to help forge a young core for the team.
When you mix in Jamie Benn (129th overall in 2007), John Klingberg (131st overall in 2010), Jamie Oleksiak (14th overall in 2011), Radek Faksa (13th overall in 2012), Esa Lindell (74th overall in on 2012), Jason Dickinson (29th overall in 2013) and Denis Gurianov (12th overall in 2015), a large part of the core of the Stars came from the draft.
"Having success in the draft is the best way to have overall success," Nill said. "There's just so many reasons for it, and if your core is homegrown, that allows you to build depth and then make trades to add players when you need them."
The 2021 draft is going to be intriguing. Many leagues were shut down by the pandemic, so scouts didn't get to see as much live action with the young prospects. The scouts used video and will rely on phone calls to coaches and sources, as well as past reports on players. Nill said the challenge will be significant, but he believes his scouts will be prepared.
"It's going to be a different year," Nill said. "It's wide open. I think when you look back on this five years from now, it's going to be a great study. In a normal year, kids change a lot between December and the draft, and we didn't have that this year, so it'll be interesting to see how the scouts have adjusted and who will be a surprise out of this class. We've done our homework, so let's hope that helps us."
[Check out NHL Central Scouting's final rankings for the 2021 NHL Draft]
He did emphasize that the 14th pick will be important. Yes, Dallas has done a good job in finding gems like Benn and Klingberg (and Texas Stars leading scorer Riley Damiani) in the fifth round, but the best chance for success is hitting on your first-round picks.
Dallas has Heiskanen, Oettinger, Gurianov, Ty Dellandrea and Thomas Harley from recent drafts, and hopes it's building a stronger resume with first-rounders.
"There's uncertainty everywhere, but I truly do believe you need your first-round picks to make it," Nill said. "We've had misses in the first round, and they've hurt, but I feel good about our ability in recent drafts to get players to come through, and I do think you see that on our roster. You look up and down our roster and a lot of our players are players we've drafted. That's a good feeling."
Picking 14th can be tricky. The Stars took Julius Honka at 14th in 2014, and he's played 87 NHL games. They took Oleksiak at 14th in 2011, and he's played 369 NHL games. That's significant. So can the Stars get a player that can join the core and help move the team forward? Nill says that's the plan.
Oettinger and Robertson are currently competing for Team USA at the IIHF World Championship. They've built a bond over the past few seasons, and this event continues to make the two teammates closer. Nill said he believes that if you can bring in a good core of young players every year, it'll result in a strong sense of unity in the franchise.
"I really do think if we can have success in the draft on a consistent basis, it does create chemistry and creates a bond when they grow together," he said. "You have players who come in for development camp or training camp and they get to know each other, and then they go away and come back the next year and build more. Then, they go to the American Hockey] League and build chemistry there, and by the time they get here, there really is a bond. That's a big part of building through the draft. You need to do it for contracts and because it's the best way to build, but I really do think you can get a group of players together by drafting well on a consistent basis."
Even if you don't always get to move up to third overall.
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This story was not subject to the approval of the National Hockey League or Dallas Stars Hockey Club.
Mike Heikais a Senior Staff Writer for DallasStars.com and has covered the Stars since 1994. Follow him on Twitter @MikeHeika, and listen to his podcast*.