With goal scoring on the mind, Stars believe they have it internally

Statistically speaking, the Stars this season were good at possessing the puck, but bad at putting it in the net.
Dallas finished 18th in scoring at 2.79 goals per game but was eighth in shots on goal per game at 30.3 and, according to Natural Stat Trick, was seventh in creating high danger chances at 8.53 per game. When you mix that with a shooting percentage of 7.4 percent that ranked 26th in the NHL, it seems pretty clear that the Stars really had trouble finishing.

So, is it as simple as saying they were missing two of their best scorers in Tyler Seguin and Alexander Radulov due to injury, and that was the reason for the offensive trouble? Or does it go deeper than that?

Stars general manager Jim Nill cautioned that looking simply at analytics can be deceptive, as games change when a team is leading or trailing.
"Our numbers are very good, but that's the problem with analytics sometimes," Nill said. "It's funny, sometimes the games you lose the analytics are great and the games we win, the analytics are terrible. A lot of times when you're ahead in a game, you play a different game than when you're behind. That can swing analytics a lot. You start opening up your game, playing a different game, start cheating on the ice and sometimes that cheating pays off for you. That's the balancing act with analytics. There's some great things with it, and there are some things you have to be careful with, and then the eye-test becomes big."
The Stars this season scored just 39 first-period goals in 56 games placing them 27th in the league. They tallied 56 goals in third periods, ranking 14th. Does that mean they were chasing games? Sometimes yes, and sometimes no. Dallas was outscored by three goals through the first two periods and then outscored its opposition 56-41 in third periods.
Again, the analytics can be confusing.
Still, they must form some sort of base for what the Stars are and what they do on the ice. Dallas wants to create offense from good defense, wants to gain possession of the puck and force play into the opponent's end of the ice. In terms of actual shots on goal, the Stars were seventh in shot differential at all strengths at plus-182.
That means they were accomplishing their goal on many nights.
Dallas ranked eighth in Corsi For at 52.8 percent and ninth in Scoring Chances For at 54.4 percent. That's a positive. They finished plus-4 in goal scoring, 17th overall. That's a negative.
When the league was shut down before the playoff bubble last season, Stars coach Rick Bowness and his coaching staff studied other teams and saw that teams that activate their defensemen create more puck possession and more scoring chances. Bowness said before this season that his philosophy was the same.
"I get wrapped up in creating chances for," he said. "If you create enough scoring chances for, you're going to score enough goals. You're going to run into great goalies, and if we're creating the chances that we have, we'll live with the results. I believe we'll score enough goals, I'm confident in that."
That preseason statement haunted Bowness at times this year, as he bemoaned the fact that players were in perfect scoring positions at times and simply couldn't finish. That said, missing Seguin for all but three games after offseason surgery and getting only 11 games from Radulov, who had surgery during the season, was crucial in a lot of ways.
"We were 18th in goals for," Nill said. "Can we get better? Yes, we have to be better. Scoring goals, we have to get better. Now, looking back if you have Seguin in the lineup, Radulov in the lineup, Roope Hintz was playing injured, you take those guys out of the lineup, that's a first line on any team, so you're going to lose some goals."

In addition, the ripples from losing those players affected the performance of their linemates. As much as Joe Pavelski had a fantastic season with 51 points (25 goals, 26 assists) in 56 games, he had 15 points (seven goals, eight assists) in his first eight games when playing with Radulov. Jamie Benn had a nice second half once he was moved to center, but he tallied just 14 points in his first 29 games while adjusting to life without Seguin.
The power play suffered greatly when Radulov was injured or when Hintz couldn't play because of his nagging hip ailment. It forced shuffling, and while Dallas finished fifth overall at 23.6 percent, Bowness said he believes the power play will be much better next season when he can ice two balanced units.
"Some of these issues that we had, they'll be fixed as soon as we get a healthy lineup," Bowness said. "They're going to automatically be fixed without tinkering with anything. Just putting Segi and Rads in, and Bish [Ben Bishop] back in the net, a lot of those problems go away."
Bishop missed the entire season in goal, and the Stars' save percentage dipped from .920 (2nd) to .908 (15th), and that's another area where the Stars believe better health will result in better numbers. Again, analytics can be studied there, but the bottom line is the organization feels it has the right plan in place.

"Collectively, we were fine," Bowness said. "Team play was good. Structure kept us in all these games and kept us in right until the end. Some of these issues we had, they'll be fixed as soon as we have a healthy lineup."
If the Stars are healthy, they certainly can ponder a more offensive lineup. Both Blake Comeau and Andrew Cogliano can become unrestricted free agents and might not return. The Stars could lose a player like Jason Dickinson in the expansion draft on July 21. That could open minutes for three lines that have more of a scoring edge.
While you could put Radulov back with Pavelski or Benn back with Seguin, you also could shuffle things up. You have what could be considered seven "top-six" forwards now with Jason Robertson putting together a great rookie season and Benn, Seguin, Radulov, Hintz, Pavelski and Denis Gurianov in the mix. Maybe Riley Damiani (33 points in 33 games) or Adam Mascherin (33 points in 34 games) could move up from the AHL after they tied for the Texas Stars' scoring lead, or perhaps the Stars will add a player in free agency or via trade.
Maybe that's how they increase their scoring and "finish." Whatever happens, it's an issue the coaching staff and front office will study.
"Is it a concern? Yes," said Nill. "You talk to any team and we all want to get better at goal scoring. We think we have that internally, and it's something we're going to try to add. Health is a big thing, but we need to get better at (producing chances) and we need to get better at finishing, too."
Victory Club memberships are available now for 2021-22! Beyond season tickets, don't miss your chance to secure the best seats for Stars home games, plus exclusive benefits, members-only experiences and much more. Click here to learn more!
This story was not subject to the approval of the National Hockey League or Dallas Stars Hockey Club.
Mike Heikais a Senior Staff Writer for DallasStars.com and has covered the Stars since 1994. Follow him on Twitter @MikeHeika, and listen to his podcast.