5 THINGS: Flyers @ Senators
John Tortorella's Philadelphia Flyers (29-32-12) are in Canada's capital city on Thursday evening to take on D.J. Smith's Ottawa Senators (36-33-5)
GAME NOTES
The game will be televised on NBCSP. The radio broadcast is on 97.5 The Fanatic with an online simulcast on Flyers Radio 24/7.
This is the third and final meeting of the season between the Eastern Conference clubs, and the second game in Ottawa. On November 5 at the Canadian Tire Centre, the Flyers earned a 2-1 victory. Seven nights later at the Wells Fargo Center, the Flyers dropped a Saturday matinee game by a 4-1 score.
The Flyers bring a six-game point streak (5-0-1) and four-game winning streak into tonight's game after going 5-1-1 on a seven-game homestand. On Tuesday at the Wells Fargo Center, center Morgan Frost led the way to a 3-2 victory over the Montreal Canadiens.
Frost scored two goals, including an artistic goal on a 2-on-1 counterattack after blocking a shot at the other end of the ice. Owen Tippett added an empty-net goal and Felix Sandstrom made 27 saves for his second career NHL win.
Six of the Flyers' final nine games of the 2022-23 season are on the road. The Flyers are 17-16-5 on home ice this season but just 12-16-7 on the road to date.
Here are five things to watch in tonight's game:
1. Frost in a groove
Morgan Frost is the Flyers' leading scorer since New Year's, posting 24 points (9g, 15a) over the team's last 36 games.
Taking the sample size back a bit further to the last 47 games (dating back to Dec. 7), there is a three-way tie for the Flyers' points lead between Frost (13g, 19a, 32 points), Scott Laughton (15g, 17a, 32 points) and Travis Konecny (17g, 15a, 32 points). Konecny, however, remains the Flyers points-per-game leader at 1.00 per game in that span. TK has missed 15 games (and counting) with an upper body injury).
Over the last 50 games, dating back to Dec. 1, Frost leads all Flyers players in even strength points (28) and all Flyers forwards in assists (20). Defenseman Tony DeAngelo tops all Flyers players in assists over the last 50 games with 22 helpers.
A common criticism of Frost's productivity is that he's done a lot of damage against bottom NHL teams but scarcely produced against playoff-caliber clubs. That may have been true earlier this season. However, in his last eight games against teams either in playoff position or within three points of a playoff spot at the team of the game, Frost has posted seven points (3g, 4a).
Within the month of March, Frost scored goals against playoff-bound Tampa (March. 7), Vegas (March 14) and bubble team Florida (ENG, one assist). He had two assists against Carolina on March 18 and a helper on Tyson Foerster's game-tying goal against Minnesota (March 23).
Frost started the month of March by being involved as the potential goal-scorer (one) or potential primary assist-getter (four, three for Tippett and one for Joel Farabee) on five different high-danger scoring chances) but had no puck luck on that night against the Rangers. He came away without a point from the 3-2 overtime loss.
2. Power play entries and puck movement
The Flyers' power play has statistically been horrid all season. It has not been as historically bad as it was in 2021-22 , when the Flyers scored on just 12.6 percent of their power plays. However, there was nowhere to go but up.
Note: Last's season's 12.6 percent power play was officially the lowest success rate in Flyers' franchise history since the NHL started tracking power plays as a recognized stat category in 1977-78. Based on historical research from box scores, however, it was the unofficial second-worst power play season in team history behind only the inaugural 1967-68 season (12.3 percent, 33-for-269).
This season, the Flyers are 15.4 percent (31-for-201) on the power play. It still ranks last in the NHL, and has been the second-worst PP season since the team went 14.1 percent during the infamous 2006-07 season that was the worst all-around year in team history (the only time the Flyers have finished with the NHL's bottom overall record).
A few times this season, the Flyers have had power play upswings where they've had improved entries, smoother puck movement and some actual finish. This has mainly come during homestands, including the just-completed seven-gamer earlier this month.
On home ice, in fact, the Flyers power play is 18.9 percent. That's hardly good (ranking 24th), but there are eight NHL teams that have converted power plays at a lower rate on home ice.
The big problem has been on the road. Away from the Wells Fargo Center, the Flyers have scored on just 11 of 95 opportunities (11.6 percent) on the man advantage. With six away games left on the Flyers' schedule, modest improvement of their power play execution is something they must strive to attain. That is not an unreasonable expectation, even if the final numbers for the season are beyond rescue.
3. Uncertainty in goal
Carter Hart was expected to start Tuesday's game against the Habs but sustained a lower-body injury during the optional morning skate. Sandström was pressed into starting duty, while top goaltending prospect Samuel Ersson was summoned from Lehigh Valley to back up Sandström.
Hart is officially day-to-day. There may be a further update during today's morning skate. The Flyers won't take any chances with the health of their No. 1 goalie. Hopefully, there will be more clarity about his status.
Sandström has had a rocky season but has performed well in each of his last three appearances in goal. Even if Hart's absence is brief (i.e., the injury would not trigger him being shut down for precautionary reasons), Sandström will probably see an uptick in playing time late in the season. Sandström, in fact, seems like the most likely candidate to start in Ottawa.
Whether Ersson remains with the parent team -- in which case, he'll get some playing time in upcoming games -- or if he soon returns to the Phantoms is dependent on Hart's availability.
Locked in a battle for a spot in the Calder Cup playoffs, the Phantoms return to action on Friday evening at home against the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins. Last weekend, Ersson won back-to-back games against W-B/S on Saturday (overtime) and the Hershey Bears (shootout) on Sunday. Ersson, in fact, was the primary reason the Phantoms stole a win against Hershey in a game in which Lehigh was outshot and outchanced by wide margins.
4. Flyers line play
The Flyers will have an optional morning skate at the Canadian Tire Centre on Thursday. As of this writing, there is no update on Hart's status.
On Tuesday against the Canadiens, Tortorella did some in-game line juggling to reunite Frost on a line with Tippett and Farabee. It remains to be seen whether that trio will carry over to this game or whether the lines will revert to the combos that started the game. Farabee and Tippett started Tuesday's game with Noah Cates, while Frost was flanked by Brendan Lemieux and Allison.
The Flyers recently have been starting 11 forwards and seven defensemen with regularity. The projection here is that this trend continues. If so, forward Tanner Laczynski will remain a healthy scratch while veteran defenseman Justin Braun is mixed in with the blueline rotation.
Projected lineup (subject to change)
86 Joel Farabee - 48 Morgan Frost - 74 Owen Tippett
22 Brendan Lemieux - 49 Noah Cates - 57 Wade Allison
25 James van Riemsdyk - 13 Kevin Hayes - 20 Kieffer Bellows
44 Nicolas Deslauriers - 21 Scott Laughton - xxxxxxxx
9 Ivan Provorov - 45 Cam York
6 Travis Sanheim - 55 Rasmus Ristolainen
24 Nick Seeler - 77 Tony DeAngelo
61 Justin Braun
32 Felix Sandström
[33 Samuel Ersson]
5. Behind Enemy Lines: Ottawa Senators
The Senators are 21-13-3 on home ice this season,compared to a 15-20-2 mark on the road.With 77 points and eight games remaining on the schedule, Ottawa is severely on the bubble in the chase for the lower wildcard spot in the Eastern Conference playoff race.
A 3-6-1 record over the last 10 games has made tonight's game against the Flyers into a virtual must-win.Currently situated in the second wildcard spot, the Pittsburgh Penguins are five points ahead of the Senators with the same number of remaining games.
On Monday at the Canadian Tire Centre, the Senators rode an explosion of three power play goals to a vital 5-2 victory over the visiting Florida Panthers. The Senators received power play goals from ex-Flyer Derick Brassard (13th), Alex DeBrincat (24th) and Tim Stützle (36th) as well as tallies by Brady Tkachiuk (34th) and Shane Pinto (ENG, 19th).
Entering tonight's game, Stützle leads the Senators with 82 points (36g, 46a). He's followed by Tkachyik (34g, 43a, 77 points), longtime Flyers captain Claude Giroux (28g, 43a, 71 points), DeBrincat (24g, 36a, 60 points, minus-28), and Drake Batherson (21g, 37a, 58 pints, minus-34).
Thomas Chabot leads the defense corps with 41 points (11g, 30a, 41 points). The Senators acquired gifted but injury-prone defenseman Jakob Chychrun (nine goals, 24 assists, 33 points in 49 games) from the Arizona Coyotes near the NHL trade deadline.
Chabot, however, is out on a week-to-week basis with an upper-body injury suffered last game against Florida. Chychrun, meanwhile, is out 2-3 weeks with a hamstring injury. Recently signed to an entry-level contract out of the University of North Dakota, 21-year-old 2020 second round pick Tyler Kleven could make his NHL debut against the Flyers.
Promising young forward Ridly Greig.the son of Flyers alum and current western Canada based scout Mark Greig, is unable to play. He is expected to miss the rest of the regular season with a sternum injury.
Apart from Giroux and Brassard, there are some other familiar faces in the Senators' lineup. On trade deadline day, the Senators acquired veteran checking forward Patrick Brown from the Flyers.In return, the Flyers received a 2023 sixth-round draft pick.
Veteran goalie Cam Talbot, who briefly played for the Flyers back in 2018-19, has appeared in 32 games for the Senators this season. He's posted a 15-14-1 record, 2.85 goals against average, .905 save percentage and one shutout. Talbot has been dealing with a middle-body injury since early March.
Danish netminder Mads Sogaard has appeared in 15 games to date, going 7-5-2 with a 3.18 GAA and .894 save percentage. On Monday against Florida, he made 32 saves to earn the win. Sogaard has won each of his last two starts after losing five in a row (0-4-1).
Currently injured, goalie Anton Forsberg has played in 28 games this season (11-11-2, 3.26 GAA, .902 save percentage, two shutouts).
Situational play breakdown: The Senators have been a poor 5-on-5 team this season in terms of 200-foot play, posting a teamwide minus-29 goal differential. The club has scored 134 goals at 5-on-5 (tied for 27th leaguewide; two fewer goals than the Flyers have scored). Meanwhile, the Sens have yielded 163 goals at 5-on-5 to rank 22nd. By comparison, the Flyers rank tied with Seattle at 13th (146 goals against at 5-on-5).
On the flip side, Ottawa has been a good special teams club this year. They rank sixth in the NHL in overall power play success (68 for 276, 24.6 percent) and 4th leaguewide in home ice power play efficiency (44-for-154, 28.6 percent). The only downside is the Senators have coughed up 10 opposing shorthanded goals this season.
On the penalty kill, the Senators rank 8th in the NHL at 82.3 percent efficiency (81.6 percent at home). The Senators have scored nine shorthanded goals.
Bottom line: The Senators are a club ranked in the middle of the NHL pack in terms of puck possession (16th in Corsi) and slightly above break-even in possession quality (50.3 percent expected goals share).
However, there's a higher-than-average amount of risk in their decision making and execution -- the Senators rank sixth from the bottom in puck management, being charged with an average 9.14 giveaways per game. If the Senators miss the playoffs, this will be one of the contributing factors.
Projected lineup (subject to change)
7 Brady Tkachuk - 18 Tim Stützle - 28 Claude Giroux
12 Alex DeBrincat - 5 7 Shane Pinto - 19 Drake Batherson
61 Derick Brassard - 27 Dylan Gambrell - 21 Mathieu Joseph
38 Patrick Brown - 47 Mark Kastelic - 16 Austin Watson
85 Jake Sanderson - 2 Artem Zub
26 Erik Brannström - 23 Travis Hamonic
43 Tyler Kleven - 5 Nick Holden
40 Mads Sogaard
33 Cam Talbot
