Analytics with Alison: Digging into High-Danger Chances

"High-danger chances," "dangerous chances," "shot quality." These are all terms we hear to describe the kind of scoring chance that a team or player creates in a game. The objective is always to get the more dangerous shot attempt because that is mathematically more likely to become a goal.

We know that for the most part, the "most dangerous" area of the ice is a home plate shaped space that begins in front of an opponent's net and widens out to the faceoff dots in the offensive zone. As we can see in the graphic below, this is where most of the goals over the past three seasons have been scored.

But beyond that area, how much of a difference does it make depending on where you are in that space? It makes sense that the closer a shooter is to the net, the more dangerous their shot is, but do we know by how much?
Let's dig in.
Thanks to Sportlogiq, we can look at this information a bit more specifically. The graphic below shows us the percentage of goals that have been scored from the past three seasons by distance in 10-foot increments from the net.

Just as the eye test tells us, the closer a shooter can be, the more likely they are to get a goal. And when it comes to defining "close," even the tiniest bit further in can make a 5% improvement in your chances to score. This is why we hear players and coaches talk about getting "to the dirty areas" and fighting for "second chances." If you can get into the net front space, you've got a high likelihood of putting a puck past the netminder. Further, if you can be there to gather any kind of rebound, you're already in a spot that sets you up best for success.
But just as we saw when we looked at the
degree of danger that a rush chance adds
to any scoring chance, other elements can affect the danger level of any shot attempt. One of those is the angle from which a shot comes. Let's again look at what the data tells us.

The closer you are not just to the net, but also to the center line of the ice helps increase your chances. Once again, this makes sense. When one shoots from the middle of the ice, one can see more space around a goaltender and has that many more options in terms of where to place the puck. In turn, the goaltender also must cover much more space in defense. As the angle of a shot increases, a shooter sees much less of a net - so there are fewer shot locations to target. Similarly, the goaltender has a smaller area which they must defend. Often, as a goalie, if you seal up the post, you've almost completely removed opportunities for an opponent to score if they are shooting from a sharp angle.
There are so many more things that can influence the "quality" of a scoring chance and we've only scratched the surface thus far (we'll keep digging in!) But understanding the nuance of distance and angle within the high-danger areas helps us better evaluate the offensive opportunities a player or team create.