Analytics with Alison: Previewing Kraken at Rangers

The Rangers have been going through a rebuilding process the last few years and the pieces are starting to come together. Big names like Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox (injured), Igor Shesterkin, and Chris Kreider are leading a team that is 6-4-0 in its last 10.
But for all the offensive prowess that New York possesses, they will face a solid Kraken defense that has been even stronger of late thanks to the play of Philipp Grubauer. If you'll allow me some creative license on a popular phrase, this is a little bit of a strong force meeting a hard to move object battle that lies ahead.

What does each team bring to the table and what are some possible keys to success for the Kraken?
Let's dig in.

OFFENSE

+ Shot Volume & Quality: Neither of these teams shoots the puck a lot compared to other teams in the league. In fact, the Rangers shoot the least per game (53.2 shot attempt average). Seattle doesn't fire pucks much more than that, but the difference comes in the quality of opportunity created. New York is close to three expected goals for per game while Seattle is closer to 2.5.
+ How Offense is Created: The Rangers don't necessarily attack off the rush, nor do they cycle the puck or fight for rebounds, but they will hold the offensive zone for quite some time (6:51 per game, 9th in the league), and that can allow their elite talent to find opportunity to score. Seattle's greatest strength is creating looks off the forecheck with about 9.2 quality chances per game overall.
+ Results: With all of this in consideration, the Rangers hold the edge. Both teams are scoring at a rate equivalent to the quality they create, New York is just creating more. Something Seattle will have to battle against - the Rangers' average scoring goes up slightly when at home.

DEFENSE

+ Shot Volume & Quality: We already said the Rangers are a low shot volume team, and Seattle's defense is one of the best in suppressing opponents' attack. The Rangers had only 40 shot attempts in their first game versus the Kraken, and they were also held almost half a goal less than normal in terms of shot quality. That's because Seattle's ability to minimize offensive volume and quality against is top 10 in the NHL.
+ Preventing Opponents' Attack: How does this happen? The Kraken are strong in preventing almost every type of offensive attack. The team is top 10 in limiting rush chances, cycle chances, forecheck chances and rebound chances. But, as we mentioned, New York can hold the zone, and that's something the Kraken allow, so don't worry if we see a bit of that. New York's defense runs close to league average in most qualities, and it's worth noting they will be without last year's Norris Trophy winner Fox in Sunday's game.
+ Results: Seattle skaters play hard and effectively, but New York has a secret weapon that has kept their goals against average to the fourth lowest in the league (2.60), and that lies in their netminders.
+ Goaltending: A major strength for the Rangers is play in net. All New York goalies are strong, but Shesterkin is a player on a lot of analysts' Vezina ballot this season and he's the likely starter for the Rangers. He has the second best save percentage, inner slot save percentage, and goals saved above expectation in the NHL and in 27 games played, he's had 13 quality starts, four shutouts, and four steals. Figuring out how to get pucks past Shesterkin could be a massive difference-maker for Seattle.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Kraken will need to bring discipline to their play against New York. The Rangers draw 2.9 penalties per game, which is low, but they also have one of the top 10 power plays in the NHL. So, staying out of the box will be critical for Seattle. The visiting team will likely also have to depend primarily on their 5-on-5 play as Seattle doesn't draw many penalties either.

SEATTLE PLAYERS TO WATCH

Jared McCann and Jordan Eberle lead the Kraken in overall shot quality; McCann and Yanni Gourde lead in points per game; and no one is shooting the puck more than Ryan Donato with McCann right behind him. Alex Wennberg has 66 slot passes on the season thus far.

RANGERS PLAYERS TO WATCH

Panarin signed with New York three seasons ago as a free agent and he was an instant accelerant to the Rangers' timeline to become a contender again. He's 10th in the LEAGUE in total points (12-26-48), and his ability to control possession is elite. He leads the Rangers in average offensive zone possession time (1:00). Kreider has a team-leading 31 goals and is one of the best at tipping pucks past goaltenders. Jacob Trouba is a big part of the Rangers' defense.
Data via Sportlogiq and Evolving-Hockey.com