Segment Four: The Lightning just completed their fourth 10-game segment. Had they been able to maintain a playoff pace of 12 points gained in each segment, they’d have 48 points. Instead, they’re at 43 — five points off playoff pace.
This just-completed segment was a topsy-turvy one. The Lightning started well, going 4-1-0 through the first five. They were in a position to ‘make up’ at least some of their pace deficit. But then they dropped three of their next four. Last night’s victory in Minnesota allowed them to reach 12 points for the segment, so at least they didn’t fall any farther behind playoff pace.
In three of their four segments, the Lightning have banked 35 points. In other words, they’ve been right at playoff pace. It was the third segment — one in which they went just 4-6-0 — that hurt their standings position the most.
If the Lightning hope to reach 96 points after 80 games, a total that should virtually guarantee them a postseason berth, they’ll likely have to accomplish two goals in the next 40 games. First, they’ll need to go on some sort of run. They haven’t had a lengthy point streak or winning streak so far this year. Second, they’ll have to avoid regulation losses, especially in bunches. Unlike the teams at or near the top of the NHL standings, the Lightning haven’t given themselves a point cushion to absorb even modest losing streaks.
A Crowded East: It’s been established that reaching 96 points after 80 games has been enough for teams to make the playoffs. Clubs then have the two final games to pad that total. But over the years, plenty of clubs have qualified with less than 96.
In the East, this may be one of those years. That’s because many of the teams are still bunched together in the standings.
As of Friday morning, the New York Rangers (53 points), Boston Bruins (52 points), and Florida Panthers (50 points) own the top three-point totals in the East. The next nine teams are separated by only four points (between 42 and 46 points). So if these clubs in contention remain competitive, points will be spread more evenly throughout the conference. Meaning that the final seeds may qualify with a point total in the low 90s.
It also would mean that there’d be more teams contending for those precious final spots. The Lightning are one of those nine aforementioned teams, but they’ve played more games than any other Eastern team (except Columbus, which is ranked 15th in the conference). So the Lightning’s point percentage is below the clubs around them in the standings. To repeat: the Lightning will need to put together a strong second half.
Second-Half Schedule: Since other teams have those games in hand, they’ll have an opportunity to gain points on the Lightning. But there is another side to that coin. Since the Lightning have played more games, they will have a less condensed schedule in the second half.
The Lightning only have five sets of back-to-backs left this year. They’ve knocked out 12 of their 16 road games versus the West, so they have just one trip left this season in which they leave the Eastern time zone. (Vegas and the three California teams in March.) Not including their bye week (which is actually a 10-day layoff), the Lightning have 10 other instances in which they’ll enjoy at least two days off in between games. Three of those are four-day breaks.
In the second half, the Lightning will often be fresher than their opponent. With fewer games remaining — and fewer points available — than their Eastern Conference foes, it’s imperative that they make the most of that advantage.
