Segment Six: It was a bumpy 10-game segment for the Lightning. An outstanding 8-2 record in Segment Five put them just one point off playoff pace. But following the bye week and All-Star Break, the Lightning hit a rough patch. They dropped the first two games out of the break and later endured a three-game skid during a 1-3-0 homestand. Victories in the last two salvaged a 5-5-0 record. With 10 points banked in Games 51-60, they fell two additional points behind playoff pace.
Teams maintaining a playoff pace will reach 96 points after 80 games, with the final two contests to be used as a chance to pad that total. Still, there have been plenty of instances in which clubs have qualified for the postseason with fewer than 96 (after all 82 games). The Lightning have played 60 games, the most in the Eastern Conference (and tied with Vancouver for the most in the NHL). So when examining the teams around them in the standings, an apples-to-apples playoff-pace comparison isn’t possible. In terms of points percentage, however, the Lightning have a percentage of .575, which is higher than the percentage owned by the Devils, Caps, Penguins, and Islanders. It’s also higher than Philadelphia’s — the Flyers occupy third place in the Metropolitan Division.
One other point to keep in mind as the playoff race reaches the final quarter turn. If teams are tied in points at the end of the season, the first tiebreaker is regulation wins. At this point, the Lightning have more regulation wins than any of those other teams mentioned above. They also would win the tiebreaker from the Red Wings, who currently occupy the first wildcard spot.
The Home-Stretch Schedule: Recently, one of my broadcast colleagues mentioned the home stretch and referenced ‘strength of schedule.’ It’s quite a simple process to look at the remaining games on a team’s schedule and determine how many remaining games are against teams destined to make the playoffs and how many take place versus those well out of the race. Logically, a team with more high-end opponents still to play should be faced with a more daunting challenge than one with an ‘easier’ schedule, right?
When addressing the media before Sunday’s game against New Jersey, Jon Cooper spoke about the dynamic of the home stretch. He said, “Everybody’s pushing. But everybody pushes in different ways. There are teams that are out, so they’re playing all these new guys that are fighting for contracts, trying to get in the league next year. They’re a whole different challenge. There are the teams that have got (a playoff spot) locked up, so they’re jockeying for position, kind of fine-tuning their game, and there’s a whole slew of teams trying to (beat) each other and get in the playoffs.”
His point about the challenge of facing teams that are out is a valid one. Over the years, there have been plenty of examples of teams destined to miss the playoffs recording late-season victories over opponents well ahead of them in the standings. Just last night, Columbus, with the worst record in the East, snapped the New York Rangers’ 10-game winning streak. I recall the 2016-17 season when the Lightning made a furious push to get in the playoffs. They went 20-6-4 over their final 30 games but missed the playoffs by a point. One of those six regulation losses came at home against Arizona, which finished with the third-worst point total in the league that year.
So those games against ‘weak’ teams can be tricky. The Lightning have several of those opponents on their schedule in their final 22 games.
The Scoring Race: With seven points in his last two games, Nikita Kucherov eclipsed 100 points and extended his lead over Nathan MacKinnon to six points.
As mentioned earlier, however, the Lightning have played a league-high 60 games. The Avs are at 59, so MacKinnon has one additional game left on his schedule.
And by the way, don’t forget about Connor McDavid. McDavid trails Kucherov by 13 points (and MacKinnon by seven), but the Oilers have only played 55 games. How many points will McDavid accumulate during those five extra games on Kucherov and four on MacKinnon?
The Lightning’s push for the playoffs is the most important race. But the battle for the scoring title figures to be a compelling one during the regular season’s final weeks.
