Based on the 10 first-round sweeps that have occurred since 2005-06, an average of 1.9 of the four games are decided by one goal. The last time a series was decided by four straight one-goal games was in the 2003 Stanley Cup Playoffs, when Anaheim swept the Detroit Red Wings in the first round. The Ducks were outshot by the Flames, 138-122; they were outshot 171-120 in their sweep of the Red Wings.
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The average shot differential is 136-114 in favor of the sweeping team, which outshot its opponents in eight of the 10 sweeps. The two exceptions were the Vancouver Canucks, who were outshot 131-120 against the St. Louis Blues in 2008-09, and the New Jersey Devils, who were outshot 114-104 against the New York Rangers in 2005-06. Each team was eliminated in the next round.
However, a team outshooting its opponent doesn't mean that they outplayed them, or that the series was even. If one team is kept to a high volume of harmless shots from the outside, and the other team takes high-danger shots from up close, the shot count will not be a reliable indicator of which team controlled the play. But that wasn't the case in this series.
By any statistical measure, Calgary was even, or had the slight edge in this series in the volume and the quality of shots, and where most of the action took place.
- The Flames led the Ducks 128-107 in scoring chances, according to Natural Stat Trick.
- In terms of rebounds, the Flames led the Ducks 14-9, according to Corsica Hockey.
- Calgary led Anaheim 18-12 in shots off the rush, according to Corsica Hockey.
- Calgary's shots were taken closer to the net, from an average of 32.8 feet; Anaheim took its shots from an average of 34.3 feet.
- At 5-on-5, 68 faceoffs took place in the Anaheim zone, compared to 64 in the Calgary zone.
If the series was so close, and arguably even tilted in favor of the Flames, what led to the Ducks winning in four games?
Having lost 29 straight games in Anaheim, including the playoffs, puck luck could have been a deciding factor in a short, tight series like this one.