Muzzin should aid Maple Leafs with possession metrics

Behind the Numbers is a weekly series in which NHL.com examines both player and team trends with an emphasis being placed on advanced statistics. This week, we look at the trade that sent defenseman Jake Muzzin from the Los Angeles Kings to the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Jake Muzzin was acquired by the Toronto Maple Leafs in a trade from the Los Angeles Kings for forward Carl Grundstrom, the rights to defenseman Sean Durzi and a first-round pick in the 2019 NHL Draft on Monday.
Although the Kings have a minus-36 goal differential, worst in the NHL, Muzzin ranked first among Los Angeles defensemen with a plus-16 shot attempts differential (SAT), including a team-best plus-82 SAT when trailing. His 1.17 points per 60 minutes and his 78 shots on goal were second among Kings defensemen behind Drew Doughty (1.26; 96). Muzzin's positive possession metrics and his offensive contributions are impressive considering his 5-on-5 zone start percentage was the lowest among Kings defensemen to play at least 50 games (42.29 percent). These metrics indicate that although Muzzin started the majority of shifts in his own zone and faced high-quality competition, he still generated positive possession for his team.
RELATED: [Fantasy spin: Muzzin to Maple Leafs | Muzzin traded to Maple Leafs by Kings]
In Toronto, Muzzin is expected to play on a pair with Morgan Rielly, who leads NHL defensemen with 35 even-strength points. It's worth noting that either Rielly or Muzzin will have to play on his off side, but because Muzzin was acquired almost one month prior to the 2019 NHL Trade Deadline on Feb. 25 at 3 p.m. ET, there will be plenty of time to acclimate to the new pair and systems. Either way, Muzzin's defensive responsibilities should help Rielly, whose plus-3 SAT is fifth among Maple Leafs defensemen. The low possession metrics likely are caused by Rielly facing the highest quality of competition among his teammates, especially in the Atlantic Division against elite forwards Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak of the Boston Bruins, and Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point and Steven Stamkos of the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Muzzin, whose plus-2,010 SAT since entering the NHL in 2010-11 ranks second among defensemen behind longtime partner Doughty's plus-2,505, should help offset the quality of competition faced. When compared to Rielly's previous partners, Muzzin has the best possession metrics by a significant margin:
2017-18: Ron Hainsey (minus-119)
2016-17: Nikita Zaitsev (minus-37)
2015-16: Matt Hunwick (minus-112)
2014-15: Roman Polak (minus-176)
2013-14:
Cody Franson
(minus-233), Jake Gardiner (minus-184), Tim Gleason (minus-240)

An underrated part of Muzzin's game is his physicality; he led the Kings with 111 hits in 50 games and his 2.2 hits per game rank 16th among NHL defensemen to play at least 44 games. He'll bring a much-needed physical edge to the Maple Leafs, who have one defenseman with more than 80 hits (Zaitsev, 82 in 49 games). Muzzin also blocks shots; he was third among Kings defensemen with 693 in 496 games (1.4 per game) behind Doughty (867; 1.3) and Alec Martinez (985; 1.9) since 2010-11. Looking ahead to the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs, physicality and shot-blocking could be the key to winning a seven-game series against potential divisional opponents in the Bruins or Lightning. Muzzin also brings the most playoff series wins (six) to the Maple Leafs blueline, which has combined for four (all from Hainsey with the Penguins in 2017).
Muzzin's power-play role was reduced this season (1:08 of ice time per game) compared to his career average (2:14), and it's unlikely he'll bump Rielly, who is tied for eighth in the NHL at the position with 15 power-play points. However, Muzzin could contribute to the second unit with forwards
William Nylander
, Kasperi Kapanen and Patrick Marleau. Over the past two seasons, Muzzin has spent 2:11 per game on the penalty kill, which could further boost Toronto's 12th-ranked unit (81.1 percent).
Muzzin's possession metrics, physicality and special-teams play should have an immediate positive impact on the Maple Leafs.