Mailbag: Potential offseason moves in Metropolitan Division
NHL.com's Dan Rosen answers weekly questions
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Blockbuster trade between Philadelphia and Columbus. Ivan Provorov now in Ohio. Jarmo Kekalainen has added two solid defensemen. Where does he go from here? Could we see a reunion between Kevin Hayes and Johnny Gaudreau? Is this an aggressive retool or rebuild? Who will be between the pipes? -- @theashcity
This is an interesting one because Hayes clearly needs a change of scenery away from the Philadelphia Flyers and Columbus clearly needs help down the middle. Hayes could be a solid contributor for the Blue Jackets. And, yes, he has a history with Gaudreau from their time together at Boston College. They know each other well. The problem is, Hayes is not a No. 1 center even though he's making $7.14 million annually on a seven-year contract that still has three years remaining. The Blue Jackets are going to land a potential future No. 1 center with the No. 3 pick in the 2023 NHL Draft be it Adan Fantilli, Leo Carlsson or Will Smith. In theory, the Blue Jackets could acquire Hayes and hope that he, Boone Jenner and Cole Sillinger can be the top-three centers until whoever they select at No. 3 is ready for a big role. Jack Roslovic has one year remaining on his contract, too, and he's an option down the middle. This is assuming they keep Kent Johnson on the wing, which is likely unless or until he puts some meat on his slight frame (6-foot, 175 pounds). The other option, which I first read about on The Athletic, is to try to acquire Gaudreau's former center with the Calgary Flames, Elias Lindholm, who has one year remaining on his contract. Lindholm is more suited to be considered a top two-way center. Hayes is a middle-six center. But Lindholm would cost more to acquire than Hayes, and the Blue Jackets likely would want to get a contract extension done with him to have assurances that he won't leave after next season. So now you're paying more in assets to acquire him and more money to keep him than it would cost to have Hayes, who has cost certainty.
The Blue Jackets have already shown an aggressive approach in the offseason by acquiring Provorov from the Flyers and Damon Severson from the New Jersey Devils. I don't think they will stop there because they want to be a Stanley Cup Playoff contender next season. They could see an opening in the Metropolitan Division with the Pittsburgh Penguins, Washington Capitals and New York Islanders potentially on a downward trajectory and the Flyers in rebuilding mode.
As for the goaltending situation, to me it certainly looks like it'll be Elvis Merzlikins and Daniil Tarasov, with the hope that new goalie coach Niklas Backstrom, the former NHL goalie, can get the most out of them. Merzlikins is signed for four more seasons with a $5.4 million salary cap charge. Short of a buyout, which I don't see happening, I think the Blue Jackets have no choice but to try to make it work. But if Tarasov pushes, he will be the No. 1. Nothing is set in stone on the depth chart.
What (if any) return do you see the Capitals getting for Anthony Mantha and/or Evgeny Kuznetsov? -- @MBog44
I don't think Washington will trade either player.
Kuznetsov is the Capitals' top center and in order to move him, they'd have to get equal value in return. They won't, so it's not really worth pursuing. They're not going to get another top center back. They can add center depth through free agency or a different trade. If the Capitals were in rebuilding mode, I think it would be closer to a lock that they'd try to move him for assets, but they're not ready to close up shop on the Alex Ovechkin era, so trading Kuznetsov doesn't make sense. Besides, Kuznetsov is one year removed from having 78 points in 79 games. He had 55 points in 81 games this season, but maybe he'll get a spark from new coach Spencer Carbery.
Mantha would be the more likely of the two to get moved, but if the Capitals do that it would be more to unload his $5.7 million salary cap charge. But that means they'd have to find a taker in the trade market, and I wonder if Washington would have to sweeten the deal by either retaining a portion of his cap charge or tossing in a draft pick. Does that make it worthwhile? I'm not sure. He had 27 points in 67 games. Nobody is clamoring for Mantha, so instead of moving him, the Capitals should try to put him in a position to succeed and hope the motivation of being in a contract year (he's entering the last season of his deal) and playing for a new coach will ignite him. I think he could be a 25-goal, 50-point player in a top-nine forward role. He basically was that with the Detroit Red Wings.
Do you think Alexis Lafreniere can become a faster skater this offseason? Also, when do we consider him a bust? -- @BruceBbrunner00
I don't think Lafreniere, the New York Rangers left wing, can become faster this offseason. I don't think players can gain speed to all of a sudden become breakaway skaters. But that isn't what Lafreniere needs to do; he needs to be a more economical skater. He needs to be able to work quicker in corners. He needs to be able to have a quicker first two or three steps in the neutral zone. He needs to be a more powerful skater. He needs better posture. He can and likely already is working with a skating coach on the nuances of skating that will make him a better overall skater. He won't all of a sudden develop breakaway speed, but he doesn't need to with his style of play. He needs to be able to separate from the opponent with one stride, not several. He needs to be effective at getting to pucks below the goal line. He needs to be strong as a skater on the defensive end to keep up with his checks. That's where his focus needs to be. I'm sure it is. Lafreniere said back on May 3 when the Rangers met the media for the final time this season that his focus this offseason would be on improving his skating. He's aware that is a shortcoming. And because of that, I think it's way too premature to think of Lafreniere as a bust. I don't think he'll ever be the superstar No. 1 pick in the same way of Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews, Jack Hughes or, eventually, Connor Bedard. But his statistics have improved year over year since entering the NHL, and Lafreniere will have a bigger opportunity under new Rangers coach Peter Laviolette than what he had under former coach Gerard Gallant. Improvements in his skating will go a long way toward allowing him to make good on it.
Do you think the Devils have what it takes to go all the way currently (assuming Timo Meier signs) or are there more pieces you think they need to acquire through trade or free agency? -- @jemgall17
It's too soon to say because the Devils have holes they are going to attempt to fill in the coming days and weeks. Assuming Meier signs, that gives them the opportunity to have Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier, Ondrej Palat, Dawson Mercer and Meier in their top-six forward group. But they need to fill out their depth, and potentially one or two of those players moves into a third line role to help that happen. Nathan Bastian, Michael McLeod, Jesper Boqvist and Yegor Sharangovich are restricted free agents. So is Meier, of course, but we're operating under the assumption that he signs. Do they sign them all? Do they package one or two as part of a bigger trade? Erik Haula, Tomas Tatar and Miles Wood can become unrestricted free agents July 1. All three played big roles for the Devils this season. If they leave, they will have to be replaced. But it will be harder with Bratt and Meier on big contracts, potentially taking up $16 million or more on the cap.
The Devils have to address the defense. Luke Hughes should be in line to be a top-six defenseman out of training camp. Can Simon Nemec do the same? Will they re-sign Ryan Graves or let him go to unrestricted free agency? My guess is the latter. Severson is gone, a pill easier to swallow with Hughes on board and Nemec potentially too. But there is some work to do on the back end. The good news is the Devils do not have to be in the market for a game-changing forward or defensemen. They have those. They're in the market to add depth, to make sure they have a go-to third line, fourth line and third defense pair.
It appears it'll be Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid or Mackenzie Blackwood in goal. Blackwood might be traded if the Devils can find the right deal. They can win with Vanecek and Schmid if they insulate their goalies, similar to how the Vegas Golden Knights won with Adin Hill. It can be done, but I have to see what pieces the Devils add in the coming days and weeks before I can say they're ready to take the next step, which is to become legitimate Stanley Cup contenders.
What trades do you see the Hurricanes pursuing this offseason? -- @MikeTheJet
The Hurricanes have a lot of their core players entering the final year of their contracts. Forwards Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen and Jordan Martinook, and defensemen Brett Pesce and Brady Skjei are all one season away from unrestricted free agency. They also have forwards Martin Necas and Seth Jarvis on team-friendly contracts, each one year away from restricted free agency. All that is to say the Hurricanes have cap space to weaponize for a big offseason that could give them the pieces they need to finally get over the hump in the playoffs after knocking on the door of a Stanley Cup Final again this season. They need more goal-scorers.
They could check in with the Toronto Maple Leafs to see if they're willing to trade Mitchell Marner or William Nylander. It doesn't appear Matthews is getting traded. They could look to the Flyers and inquire about Travis Konecny or Hayes. The Winnipeg Jets have Pierre-Luc Dubois, Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler, who should be on the trading block. The St. Louis Blues have Pavel Buchnevich and Brandon Saad, who could be available. Same with J.T. Miller and Brock Boeser from the Vancouver Canucks, Josh Anderson from the Montreal Canadiens and Lindholm from the Flames.
The Hurricanes are a win-now team. They have first-round picks in each of the next three NHL drafts starting next week. They also have four second-round picks in the next three drafts. They should use assets that won't help them win next season to acquire players who can.
