Mailbag: Wild goaltending in playoffs; Capitals future

Here is the April 5 edition of the mailbag, where we answer your questions asked on Twitter using #OvertheBoards. Tweet your questions to @drosennhl.

Could we see a Matt Murray situation where the Minnesota Wild ride Filip Gustavsson over Marc-Andre Fleury during their playoff run? -- @VadnaisJerome
Yes, we could see something similar, although it was different when Murray and Fleury were the goalies for the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2016 and 2017. Murray started the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs because Fleury had a concussion and went on a great run. Fleury finally got in during the second period of Game 4 against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the Eastern Conference Final. He started Game 5, allowed four goals in a 4-3 loss, and didn't play again. The Penguins won the Stanley Cup. Then in 2017, Fleury started the playoffs because Murray was hurt. That lasted until the conference final when Murray took over. The Penguins won the Cup again.
As of now, Fleury and Gustavsson are healthy and both playing well. Though that's great, it presents the one conundrum for the Wild as they embark on trying to finish first in the Central Division after clinching a playoff berth Monday. Who do they go with? It's easy to say they can't make a wrong decision with the way they've been playing, but that's not always true.
Fleury and Gustavsson have basically been alternating starts for a month and a half and their numbers are exceptional. They have 10 starts each. Fleury has eight wins, one shutout, a 2.28 goals-against average and .933 save percentage. Gustavsson has five wins, two shutouts, a 1.83 GAA and .941 save percentage. But alternating in the playoffs is not a typical strategy, so the goalie who doesn't start Game 1 has to be ready at a moment's notice. He will not likely get a schedule of when his next start will be, like he does now in the regular season. And the goalie who starts Game 1 will have to retrain his brain to be ready for a long run of playing time.

Major surgery in Washington is required this offseason. Thoughts? Could John Carlson and/or Evgeny Kuznetsov be available? -- @HarrisonB927077
The Washington Capitals won't conduct a full rebuild until after Alex Ovechkin breaks Wayne Gretzky's record for most goals in NHL history. He is sitting at 822, which puts him 72 away from Gretzky's 894. The Capitals still have five games remaining, so Ovechkin could be less than 70 shy of Gretzky's record when this season ends. That's one ridiculous season or, more likely, two reasonable seasons of goal scoring based on Ovechkin's standards and puts him on pace to break the record in 2024-25.
Ovechkin and Carlson are signed through 2025-26; Kuznetsov, Nicklas Backstrom and T.J. Oshie through 2024-25. I think the Capitals would trade Kuznetsov if they can get good value in return for the 30-year-old forward, but he's having a disappointing season by his standards with 54 points (12 goals, 42 assists) in 76 games. He could have the fewest points in a season he played at least 70 games since he had 37 in 80 games as a rookie in 2014-15, so it might not be the best time to try to trade him. Instead, my guess is Ovechkin, Carlson, Backstrom, Kuznetsov and Oshie stay together at least for next season and the Capitals continue to work around them to try to put together a playoff-caliber team.
Dylan Strome will be a part of it. He is starting a five-year, $25 million contract next season. Defensemen Nick Jensen and Trevor van Riemsdyk each signed a three-year contract this season, so they're in. Tom Wilson and Anthony Mantha are signed through next season. Everything won't be the same in Washington. There will be some surgery. Maybe Mantha gets traded. Maybe Wilson does. I don't think you can rule it out because his contract expires after next season. But the Capitals are not tearing it down and it's hard to do an invasive surgery to the roster with the contracts they have signed and the history the greatest player in team history is embarking on.

If Connor McDavid and the Oilers don't have a deep playoff run this year or win the Stanley Cup, what do you think the plan is moving forward? McDavid deserves a chance to win the Cup, but the Oilers need to supply the supporting cast. -- @mingrass513
McDavid has the supporting cast around him to go on a long run this season, potentially ending with a Stanley Cup championship if the goaltending holds up. The Oilers are built to win, but Stuart Skinner and/or Jack Campbell must do his/their part. Edmonton did right by McDavid and Leon Draisaitl before the 2023 NHL Trade Deadline by acquiring defenseman Mattias Ekholm from the Nashville Predators and center Nick Bjugstad from the Arizona Coyotes.
Ekholm is the defenseman the Oilers absolutely needed. He is a guarantee for 20-22 minutes per game and you know exactly what you're going to get, and you're going to like it. His game is predictable in a good way. Bjugstad (6-foot-6, 209 pounds) just gives them that extra size and depth in their bottom-six forward group. McDavid and Draisaitl are the obvious drivers, but Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, Evander Kane and Kailer Yamamoto give stability to the top six. Bjugstad, Mattias Janmark and Warren Foegele anchor the bottom six. It's not the best third line in the NHL, but it's effective and hard to play against. Either way, the scoring has to come from the top six.
No offense to Tyson Barrie, who was traded to Nashville in the Ekholm deal, but the defense is better now because of Ekholm. It comes down to goaltending, but the same can be said for the Vegas Golden Knights and Los Angeles Kings. None of the top three teams in the Pacific Division are blessed with a No. 1 that is a sure thing at this point in his career. If it doesn't work for the Oilers this season, I don't think it'll be because of McDavid and who they surrounded him with. He has the supporting cast.

If Tampa Bay wins the Stanley Cup this year that would be three since 2020. Would you place them in the same dynasty era of the 1980s Islanders if that were to happen? -- @mingrass513
Two questions for you this week because both are good. But it's not era, it's class of dynasty. And the answer is yes. The New York Islanders won four championships in a row from 1980-83. Obviously, the Tampa Bay Lightning aren't going to do that after losing the Stanley Cup Final in six games to the Colorado Avalanche last season, but if they can reach the Final again this season, they would be the first team since the Islanders to get there four years in a row. I do think they have to win it again to be considered a dynasty in the same way the Islanders of the 1980s are considered a dynasty. Three in four makes a dynasty. Heck, three in six does. That's what the Chicago Blackhawks did by winning the Stanley Cup in 2010, 2013 and 2015, and the Detroit Red Wings did in winning it in 1997, 1998 and 2002. But the Lightning would be in a class above them if we're ranking dynasties. They'd be just a notch below the Islanders and approaching the Oilers, who won it five times in seven seasons from 1984-90.
Scoring is up. We've got a bevy of 100-point scorers, multiple 50-goal scorers. Is this the skill level going up, the rule enforcements doing their job, or a combo? -- @mikeybox
It's a combination of skill in the game, veteran players accepting and wanting that skill to shine through trial and error, and rule enforcements that are tailored to allow skilled players to do more with the puck.
I can't say this with hard data to back me up, but you'll hear it in many places around hockey: There has never been this much skill in the NHL at the same time, this many players who can dominate and take over games. The why makes sense. Most of the players coming into the League now and in the past five or 10 years have been developing with their own personal skill coaches. They are getting (paying for) more one-on-one attention to focus on the details that allow them to enhance their already God-given abilities. And because they have been focusing so much on skill and using it to their advantage at lower levels, they are coming into the NHL with the confidence and bravado that it will work here too. There is less trepidation in the minds of young players, less of the can't try that here mentality. The players they're joining are open to seeing more skill in the game. Many of them were trailblazers for it, like Patrick Kane, Sidney Crosby, Ovechkin in the 2000s, onto Nathan MacKinnon, McDavid and Auston Matthews in the 2010s to now Jack Hughes, Trevor Zegras, Cale Makar,
Tim Stutzle
and so many more in the 2020s. Lacrosse goals and the like are common place because there's a feeling of if you think you can then you might as well give it a try. If it works, great. If it doesn't, try again. They're not going to get run through the boards for doing it.
And on top of it is the stricter enforcements of slashing, hooking, holding and cross-checking. The NHL wants the most skilled players to have the ability to showcase their skill on a nightly basis. If they get whacked in the hands, it's going to be a penalty. If they get held, it's going to be a penalty. So you see less of it, and that gives more freedom for the best to operate. Oh, and power plays are at 21.4 percent, the highest since 1985-86 (22.2 percent). That's how you get goals per game at 6.37 percent, the highest since 1993-94 (6.48), and 31 players with at least 35 goals, including 10 in the 40s, three in the 50s and one in the 60s.
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