Mailbag: Early favorite in Eastern Conference, DeBrincat trade options

Here is the July 6 edition of the mailbag, where we answer your questions asked on Twitter using #OvertheBoards. Tweet your questions to @drosennhl.

Who do you see as an early favorite in the East? Will the Prince of Wales leave Florida? -- @miskritm

It's not the Florida Panthers. I can say that with conviction. Their story was great last season, but the fact is they weren't a very good team in the regular season, got lucky and made the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and then got red-hot and rode it all the way to the Stanley Cup Final, when they were too banged up and out of gas against a much better team. They've lost some key parts, including defensemen Radko Gudas and Marc Staal, and forward Anthony Duclair, and replaced them with defensemen Niko Mikkola, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Mike Reilly and Dmitry Kulikov, and forward Evan Rodrigues. They're relevant and they'll be in the mix, but they're not the favorite.

To be honest, though, it's still too early to say who is because rosters are still being remade. For example, the Carolina Hurricanes and Pittsburgh Penguins have each been in the trade rumors swirling around San Jose Sharks defenseman Erik Karlsson. If one of them acquires the Norris Trophy-winning defenseman, their roster looks a lot different than it does today. The Hurricanes are also reportedly interested in forward Vladimir Tarasenko. Sportsnet reported Wednesday that Tarasenko changed agents and is resetting with his new representation, J.P. Barry and Pat Brisson of CAA.

The Boston Bruins don't yet know the status of unrestricted free agent centers Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, and they have not yet re-signed restricted free agent goalie Jeremy Swayman. The rest of the Bruins offseason hinges on Bergeron and Krejci. Do they come back to Boston on one-year contracts, or do they retire? The Toronto Maple Leafs have to get RFA goalie Ilya Samsonov under contract too and they have no space under the NHL salary cap. What do they do? I like what the New Jersey Devils have done by adding forward Tyler Toffoli, but it's going to be harder for them. They played with no expectations last season and that won't be the case this season. The New York Rangers found some really good bargain buys in forwards Blake Wheeler, Nick Bonino and Tyler Pitlick, and defenseman Erik Gustafsson. But will they be fast enough? How will they respond to new coach Peter Laviolette? I don't know.

You're asking me now so I'll say the Hurricanes are the early favorite, but a lot of factors could force me to change that opinion.

When will Alex DeBrincat be an Islander? -- @MitchellKlee

Great question. I don't have an exact answer, but I think DeBrincat to the New York Islanders makes sense for all parties involved if they're interested.

DeBrincat is a restricted free agent who has said he doesn't want to sign a long-term contract with the Ottawa Senators. They could sign him to a one-year deal and take it from there, but the more likely move here for the Senators is to trade him. The Islanders need an elite goal-scorer. DeBrincat is an elite goal-scorer. He scored 41 goals with the Chicago Blackhawks two seasons ago and 27 for the Senators last season. DeBrincat could be a 40-goal scorer playing with Islanders center Mathew Barzal, a fact that should be incentive to sign with them if they acquire him. Barzal turned 26 on May 26 and is entering the first season of an eight-year contract. DeBrincat will turn 26 on Dec. 18 and could also enter the first season of an eight-year contract if the Islanders get him, and they can grow together on Long Island, but it must make sense for the Senators too. They're not just going to give DeBrincat to the Islanders for pennies on the dollar.

The Islanders could offer center Jean-Gabriel Pageau, an Ottawa favorite from his time with the Senators from 2013-20, as part of the package for DeBrincat. Pageau is signed for three more seasons and the 30-year-old would be an instant leader for the Senators. Oliver Wahlstrom could be interesting too. He's a 23-year-old forward in need of a restart, and the Senators could give him that. New York would have to clear more room to make this happen, but it's not a fantasy to think it could.

Do you see the Penguins making the Erik Karlsson trade happen this offseason? -- @RRevine

I don't see it happening. Yes, I know I could be wrong, but I think there are too many hoops to go through to make it work with the salary cap. Even if the Sharks are willing to retain a portion of Karlsson's cap charge, it's still a lot to take on for the Penguins, a team already capped out. They'd have to move out salary to make it work, but the Sharks are rebuilding and the last thing they want to do is take on a 30-something player who is signed for a few more years. The idea is they're trading Karlsson to give him a chance to win the Cup while getting assets in return that will help them rebuild to compete for the Cup again in a few years. The Penguins don't have those assets, especially if they want to try to both contend now and build for the future.

Teams that want to do that do not trade high-value assets like first-round draft picks. That means a third team would have to be in the mix, but one that would be willing to take on, for example, defenseman Jeff Petry, who has two seasons remaining on a four-year contract he signed with the Montreal Canadiens on Sept. 25, 2020, that has a $6.25 million average annual value. That means the Penguins would have to add a sweetener to this unknown third team to make it work. And, you guessed it, that requires assets the Penguins would be willing to move. They don't have a lot of them, and they shouldn't give them away, so, no, I don't see it happening. Could it? Yes, but I don't think the Penguins should do it.

Should the Devils make any more moves this offseason? -- @matt12r

If they do anything, it would be to sign a depth forward for their bottom six. The top six appears set with Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes, Timo Meier, Ondrej Palat, Jesper Bratt and Toffoli. Erik Haula and Dawson Mercer should be locks to be in the top nine. They have Nathan Bastian, Michael McLeod and Curtis Lazar, so that could be the fourth line. It leaves a hole that could be filled internally by Nolan Foote, Alexander Holtz or Video: SJS@WPG: Karlsson finishes slick pass to open scoring, or the Devils could look outside the organization. They could bring back Video: SJS@WPG: Karlsson finishes slick pass to open scoring, a UFA. They could leave the spot open and wait for someone like Video: SJS@WPG: Karlsson finishes slick pass to open scoring. They could move McLeod into the top nine and create a need for a fourth line forward in the mold of someone like Video: SJS@WPG: Karlsson finishes slick pass to open scoring, who is a UFA. They don't have to do anything, but they have the cap space to do something if they want to.

The Devils are set at defenseman with Dougie Hamilton, Jonas Siegenthaler, Luke Hughes, John Marino, Kevin Bahl, Colin Miller and Brendan Smith. They have Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid in net. They could try to upgrade there if they'd like, but if they're going to trade for, let's just say Connor Hellebuyck from the Winnipeg Jets, that's a bigger move that could come with a contract extension. The Devils do not have to do that. They don't have to do anything if they don't want to, but I think they will make one more addition.

Where does Patrick Kane end up? -- @vincenz_marc

Kane had hip resurfacing surgery June 1 and could miss the start of the season. He is in no rush to sign. Rehabbing is his No. 1 priority. When he's ready, and that might be after the regular season begins, I think the Rangers, Buffalo Sabres, Devils and others will have interest. My prediction is he signs with the Sabres and it's a homecoming for Kane, who is from Buffalo. The Sabres are ready to take the next step, and Kane would be the Stanley Cup winner they do not have in their forward group.

Is Marty Walsh and the NHLPA fighting the cap and the players being crushed by it with low short-term contracts? -- @gregmaddensoc

The cap is flat because the escrow balance the players owe the owners is not fully paid off. It was incurred during the pause in the 2019-20 season because of the COVID-19 pandemic, when players were still being paid in full, but revenues stalled, and owners were not earning their 50 percent of hockey-related revenue as stipulated in the NHL/NHLPA Collective Bargaining Agreement. The players had to pay the owners back and they've been doing that. Their debt will be repaid in full this season, and we should see the cap go up between $4 million and $5 million next season. It's $83.5 million this season and could be up to $90 million in two years.

There was some discussion about the NHL and NHL Players' Association negotiating so the cap could go up more than $1 million this season, allowing for more money in the system, but raising the cap would also mean raising the escrow percentage the players pay to the owners. It is locked in at 6 percent for the last three years of the CBA, which was signed in 2020. Raising the cap before the players' debt was repaid would have added more money into the system this season, but it also would have cost the players more money in escrow. It did not happen. Instead, we're seeing teams signing players to short-term contracts that may be worth lower than normal value because many have cap constraints and simply can't afford more this season. But this works both ways because by signing short-term contracts, the players are also setting themselves up for longer-term and higher-value contracts starting next season, when the cap growth returns to pre-COVID levels. It's short-term pain, but there will be long-term gain.