Bobrovsky_Andersen

Goaltending is an integral part of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. To better understand the strengths and weaknesses of each goaltender, the last 50 goals allowed for each goaltender in the regular season and every goal in the playoffs were charted, with the help of Apex Video Analysis and Save Review System from Upper Hand Inc., to see what patterns emerge.

The Eastern Conference Final between the Florida Panthers and Carolina Hurricanes features two goalies in the midst bounce-back playoffs after below-average regular seasons.

Whether Sergei Bobrovsky and Frederik Andersen can keep it up could depend how well the other team identifies and attacks any relative weaknesses.

Sergei Bobrovsky, Florida Panthers

The Panthers rode a hot Alex Lyon into the Stanley Cup Playoffs and through the first three starts before Bobrovsky came off the bench in relief and helped backstop them to a first-round upset of the Boston Bruins. Bobrovsky's save percentage was below his career averages in both the regular season (.901 compared to .915) and through the first round of the playoffs (.891 to .900), but the two-time Vezina Trophy winner as best goalie in the NHL looked more like his old self against the Toronto Maple Leafs in the second round. After surrendering 17 goals in less than five games against Boston, Bobrovsky only gave up 10 in five games against Toronto while posting a .943 save percentage.

Sergei Bobrovsky ECF Graphic[100]

Blocker side? Maybe not:Nothing jumped off the page about Bobrovsky's goal locations until the Bruins scored six of their 17 goals (35.3 percent) shooting mid-to-high blocker. Toronto appeared to target the blocker side early in the second round as well, despite the fact it hasn't been a statistical weakness historically. In fact, of the over 430 goals tracked on Bobrovsky since this project started in 2017, his blocker totals were slightly below average. While those numbers don't represent a save percentage that would better track relative strengths and weaknesses, the way Bobrovsky prioritizes blocker coverage and access over the stick it holds, even dropping that stick on purpose at times so he can make active blocker saves, made it seem like an odd thing to target. And sure enough, Bobrovsky made several tough saves, especially on Auston Matthews in Game 1, with the blocker and Toronto only scored twice there.

Across the slot line: Bobrovsky still has a powerful cross-ice push and the ability to make dramatic extended saves, so it's often not enough to create lateral movement on the same side of the ice. Making plays from one side to the other across the slot line, which divides the middle of the ice from the goal line to the top of the face-off circles, that force him to rotate into bigger pushes have been key to scoring all season. These types of plays accounted for 48 percent of tracked goals in the regular season, well above 36.4 percent average, were a factor on 64.7 percent in five games against the Bruins, and seven of the 10 goals by Toronto.

Below hash marks: Chances of scoring increase significantly if those lateral passes connect below the hash marks, and shooters should look for Bobrovsky to widen his stance before trying to make them. That wider, lowered stance forces Bobrovksy to lift and open before he can push across, adding a delay, and the fact he typically plays rush chances outside the crease makes it a difficult save on a one-timer, even on a shot along the ice like Sam Lafferty's in Game 3 against the Maple Leafs. That goal aside, even cross-ice plays and one-timers aren't a guaranteed goal given Bobrovsky's power and flexibility, and apparent tap-ins can become momentum-changing saves if shooters don't elevate at least above the height of his pads.

Stay for rebounds: It's also important to stop at the net on those types of plays rather than peeling off into a corner, something the Bruins did to create rebound goals after brilliant saves, and part of a rise in his rebound goals from the regular season (12 percent) to the first round (37.5), even though Toronto didn't do it as effectively (20 percent).

Against the grain: Catching Bobrovsky moving is another key, with Boston shooting or pulling the puck opposite the direction he was moving on 29.4 percent of their goals and Toronto on 30 percent, similar to the regular-season total (32 percent) and also well above the historical average tracked at 18.5 percent. It can also be effective on low-high passes that force him off his post, with the explosive nature of those pushes creating exposure on the short side.

Screens: "Get more traffic" is almost a cliché at this time of the season, and while Bobrovsky managed screens well in the first round, they were a statistical weakness in the regular season and a factor on three of 10 goals against the Maple Leafs. Shooters higher up in the offensive zone can wait for him to transition from a narrow, elevated stance to look over traffic into that much lower, wider save stance before trying to filter high shots to the net.

Frederik Andersen, Carolina Hurricanes

The regular season didn't go as hoped for Andersen, who missed time with injuries while seeing his save percentage dip from .922 in his first season in Carolina to .903 this season, well below his .915 career average. But he looked great in his debut, a 33-save performance in a 2-1 series-clinching overtime win against the New York Islanders in Game 6 of the first round after missing the beginning because of injury and has a .931 save percentage in the playoffs.

Frederik Andersen ECF Graphic[6]

Attack off the rush: Finding trends on Andersen is difficult because his regular season was so uncharacteristic and there's not a big sample size in the playoffs, but the high number of goals coming off the rush was consistent. Among the 50 goals tracked at the end of the regular season, 64 percent came off the rush compared to 36 percent off in-zone plays, which is beyond the opposite (60.9 in zone; 39.1 rush) of the averages tracked for 6,695 goals since this project started back in 2017. Six of 10 in the playoffs have come off the rush as well, including five of nine against the New Jersey Devils in the second round. That doesn't include two more goals that came shortly after a rush chance, before Carolina had fully settled in their own zone, and one off an offensive zone giveaway that created a rush-type scoring play. Whether it's the bit of backwards flow he plays with or just the fact that rush chances tend to be more dangerous in general, Florida would be best served to attack off transition and with speed.

Don't pass on clean looks:The other number that jumped out was 46 percent of tracked goals coming off shots where Andersen had time to set and see the release, more than double the average. Cal Clutterbuck beat him with an open look rush shot over the glove from just above the right face-off dot in the first round, but a lot of the regular-season goals came from further out and high glove was a popular location. Counting on those trends to continue for a goalie as good as Andersen may seem like a risk in an era where shot quality is so important, but there were enough of them during the season that it's worth testing.

Wide and lateral:Another trend on rush chances was the tendency to get outside his posts as plays came down the wing deeper into the zone, which increased the distance he had to cover on any long lateral passes that followed. It made it tough for Andersen to get across when those passes across the slot line to the other side connected, especially when there was a one-timer on the other end. He's still fast enough to get there and flexible enough to make momentum-changing pad saves when he does, but the need to reach rather than getting his whole body turned and across, which he's done better in playoffs, led to exposure up over the pad. Five of the 10 goals he's given up in the playoffs came after plays across the slot line.

5-hole:It's not a spot that typically gets targeted, but Andersen gives up more goals between the pads than his peers, and with three of 10 in the playoffs so far; it's at least worth noting that quick put-backs along the ice in scrambles might work more often than you'd expect.

Make him handle the puck:Andersen is good with his stick but after years of being asked not to do it as often, he coughed it up four times that led directly to goals in the regular season.