Saros_Lankinen_Luukkonen

In a short tournament like the 4 Nations Face-Off, goaltending could make the difference between success and failure for each of the four countries participating in the round-robin tournament that runs from Wednesday to Feb. 20. So just like NHL.com has done since the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs, we've charted the goals given up by each nation's goalies during the 2024-25 NHL regular season to better understand the strengths and weaknesses of each and see what patterns emerge that might be targeted. Today, it is Finland, which opens the tournament against the United States at Bell Centre on Thursday (8 p.m. ET; ESPN, ESPN+, SN, TVAS).

Juuse Saros

Nashville Predators

Saros will start the tournament opener for Finland despite his off season statistically, including an .899 save percentage in 41 games that would be his lowest single-season mark in the NHL since playing one game in 2015-16. But Saros isn't far removed from being voted a Vezina Trophy finalist as the League's best goalie 2021-22, and a good portion of his statistical decline this season may be the lack of defensive support from a struggling team.

With that in mind, we tracked the past 75 goals allowed by Saros.

Saros_4N-FIN_goalie-breakdown

High glove? It's impossible to ignore the 24 goals (32.0 percent) past Saros' glove, which is significantly more than the 23.6 percent average for the more than 8,000 goals tracked for this project since 2017, especially since Saros (5-foot-11) is the shortest goalie in the NHL. But it's also worth noting that only five of those high-glove goals came on clean looks, and many were a result of other primary factors, including screens (six) and lateral plays across the middle of the ice that were finished with one-timers (six), each circumstance in which most goalies frequently keep their glove down by the hip for more of a blocking save. As incredibly fast as Saros moves around his crease, shooters know they have to elevate even on those high-danger lateral feeds, otherwise they risk him making momentum-changing saves down low.

Low-high and lateral: There were 21 goals (28.0 percent) tracked off lateral plays and passes across the middle of the ice, and 14 were finished below the hash marks. Add in another 21 plays that included a low-high pass out or a pass from near or below the goal line and it makes sense to attack Saros from sharp angles and in tight. Such plays can create situations where he is caught outside his posts or transitioning in and out of his post-integration positions because his size prevents him from sitting in post-play tactics like the reverse-VH as early as often as some of his peers.

Screens and scrambles: Sight lines can be harder for Saros to find as a smaller goalie and he can get caught trying to look past the shoulders of taller players in front. He also has a habit of drifting back a bit in his crease behind the traffic, contributing to more open net for the 11 screen goals he allowed, as well as giving up net on several of the 15 scramble goals (20.0 percent), above the 14.0 percent tracked average. One thing a deeper positional approach seems to have reduced is the amount of times Saros gets stranded too high in his crease on second chances, an area the Vancouver Canucks targeted successfully during the first round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs by stretching him out wide in scramble-recovery situations. That tactic hasn't cost him as many goals this season.

Catch him moving: The slight drift in traffic is more prevalent off the rush, where he takes ice early and retreats with the speed of the attack, movement that can make even goalies that move as well as Saros a bit more vulnerable to shots and plays against the grain. There were 23 (30.7 percent) such plays in this sample, well above the 18.4 percent tracked average, including several off east-west passes where his impressive lateral speed left him past his angle.

Kevin Lankinen

Vancouver Canucks

The Canucks goalie is having a breakout season, proving the success he enjoyed playing a lot less behind Saros in Nashville the previous two seasons can indeed translate to a bigger role. He has a .905 save percentage and NHL career-best four shutouts in 34 games, three short of his single-season high set with the Chicago Blackhawks in 2020-21. Lankinen also is no stranger to success internationally, helping Finland win the gold medal at the 2019 IIHF World Championship with a .942 save percentage and two shutouts in eight games.

Lankinen_4N-FIN_goalie-breakdown

Low glove, not high? It may be the result of the smaller sample size tracked on Lankinen, who like most Finland-born goalies maintains active hands and catches and controls a lot of high shots, but perhaps his fingers-up glove position makes it a bit harder to get that glove turned down on low shots just over the pad. Interestingly, considering how good his blocker has looked this season, all four clean-shot goals tracked went in mid-to-low on the blocker side.

Rebounds to right: Lankinen plays near the edges of his crease more than some of his peers, and that can create additional exposure on rebounds (16.0 percent) and scramble plays (18.0 percent) that get funneled off to the side. As quick as he is, that combination sometimes can leave him with too much space to cover, and it shows up in the 11 goals scored along the ice to his right on the goal chart. Best to make sure to elevate those second chances quickly because he never stops battling and has turned more than a few sure goals into momentum-changing athletic saves for the Canucks this season.

Same goes for the slot line: Lateral plays across the middle of the ice were the primary factor on 24.0 percent of the goals, slightly more than the 22.1 percent tracked average, and similar to rebounds, there are times Lankinen being at or past the edge of his crease creates additional distance for him to cover on side-to-side passes. But never count him out. Ask United States forward Auston Matthews, who was robbed of a tying goal by the raised glove of a sliding, stretching Lankinen with 1:57 left in the third period for the Canucks against the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday, Vancouver's final game before the 4 Nations break.

Against the grain: This also may be a function of initial positioning and extra movement that can result from it, but shots back the other way were a factor on 22.0 percent of tracked goals.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Buffalo Sabres

Like Saros, Luukkonen has been better than his .895 save percentage in 39 games suggests behind a struggling Buffalo Sabres team. He also plays a very different style at 6-foot-5, but it's uncertain how much he'll play so we only tracked 50 goals.

UPL_4N-FIN_goalie-breakdown

Glove side? The charted numbers on the glove side aren't much above the tracked averages, 26.0 percent high glove vs. 23.6 percent tracked average, and 16.0 percent low glove vs. 7.9 percent tracked. But with six of the nine clean-shot goals, which also is well above the tracked average of 3.7 percent, on the glove side, it’s a trend worth noting.

Lateral looks: Luukkonen plays deeper in his crease than Saros or Lankinen, typically forcing shooters to beat him around the edges even after lateral plays and passes because he gives himself less distance to cover. Even though he gave up 11 slot-line goals in this sample, it's still slightly below the average, and more than half were from above the hash marks, emphasizing how good he is on the east-west attempts down low that most teams try to create.

Related Content