Sweden goalie breakdown for 4 Nations Face-Off opener

In a short tournament like the 4 Nations Face-Off, goaltending could make the difference between success and failure for each of the four countries participating in the round-robin tournament that runs from Wednesday to Feb. 20. So, just like NHL.com has done since the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs, we've charted the goals given up by each nation's goalies during the 2024-25 NHL regular season to better understand their strengths and weaknesses and see what patterns emerge that might be targeted. Today, it is Sweden, which opens the tournament against Canada at Bell Centre on Wednesday (8 p.m. ET; MAX, truTV, TNT, SN, TVAS).

Filip Gustavsson

Minnesota Wild

Jacob Markstrom of the New Jersey Devils is out because of a knee injury, so Filip Gustavsson gets the start Wednesday. Gustavsson and Linus Ullmark each enter the tournament with matching .915 save percentages, and Samuel Ersson, who was named as Markstrom's replacement, has played better than his .896 save percentage might indicate behind a Philadelphia Flyers team that gives up a lot of quality chances.

Gustavsson has an .896 save percentage since Jan. 1, but with Ullmark limited to two games in 2025 because of a back injury, the Wild's No.1 goalie gets first crack at the Sweden crease. With that in mind, we tracked 75 goals for Gustavsson, all 58 for Ullmark this season, and 50 for Ersson.

Catch him sliding: Gustavsson has been successful against increasing lateral attacks this season and his 17 goals on passes or plays across the slot line (22.6 percent) -- an imaginary divider the splits the offensive zone from the goal line to the top of the face-off circles -- barely was higher than the 22.1 percent average for the more than 8,000 goals tracked for this project since 2017. In fact, very few of Gustavsson's results were outside the norm, which is to be expected given his strong technical foundation and well-balanced, almost neutral, play style. But there were some notable trends among those goals, as well as another 10 on same-side lateral passes, and that was a tendency to slide across on his knees rather than beating those plays on his skates. It also might explain why his one-timer goals were far less than the average, because the better play is to hold pucks when he slides, forcing him to lift the lead pad to grab an edge and stop or even push back into angle, extra movement that played a role in 18 against-the-grain goals (24 percent), which was one of the few categories that was higher than the tracked average.

Clean looks: The 14 open-look goals also were more than expected, and while nine were from good shooting areas, they were somewhat evenly mixed between the blocker (eight) and glove (six). That includes four high-glove goals, which bucks the trend of shooting low on a goalie who holds his glove high in a fingers-up position. But Gustavsson sometimes drops that glove as his first move on open shots, and the delay getting it back up as he drops can be costly.

Screen shifts and tips: A tendency to slide slightly rather than shift into longer shots with traffic can leave Gustavsson susceptible to deflections (15), especially against the grain, which along with his screen goals (12) were slightly higher than the tracked averages.

Linus Ullmark

Ottawa Senators

Ullmark won seven games in a row before leaving Dec. 22 at the Edmonton Oilers with the back injury and didn't return until last week, making 77 saves in losses to the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers four days apart before 4 Nations. If healthy, the 2022-23 Vezina Trophy winner, awarded to the top goalie in the NHL, ultimately may end up starting for Sweden.

Low glove? While it's uncommon to have the highest total just above the leg pad on either side, the reality is only four of these goals are on open looks, and one of those was a breakaway. Four more came on slot-line plays, three of which were in tight, when shooters are just trying to get the puck over the lead pad. Three more came on screens, two rebounds and two scrambles.

Good in a scramble: Speaking of plays where the puck hits a leg or stick in front, trying to create that type of chaos often is key to scoring on a top goalie but may be lost on Ullmark, who only has given up six such goals this season (10.3 percent), well below the tracked average of 14 percent. It's in part a result of his adoption of a recoil technique, a very slight drift backward, even on shots in-zone, that helps build momentum for plays that are deflected or passed laterally, making it easier to recover across and back toward a post instead of dropping forward into a butterfly when the shot or pass was released. Similarly, Ullmark's performance on slot-line plays across the middle of the ice was better than average.

Perhaps less so behind a screen: The highest goal total came on screened shots, with 12 goals (20.7 percent), which is higher than the 15.1 percent average, with the depth surrendered with that backward flow, however subtle, coming at the cost of net coverage when he is forced into more of a shift-and-block mode because of a lack of sight lines. Similarly, the seven goals where deflections were a factor are also slightly worse than average, perhaps, in part, because he's moving away from the tip point, which opens more space for the puck to change angle.

Rebounds hit different: Ullmark's nine rebound goals (15.5 percent) were only slightly higher than average. But much like Gustavsson, it will be important for opponents to understand pucks are going to bounce harder off his Bauer pads, which are designed to produce a more lively rebound that travels faster and further, meaning second chances aren't always in tight.

Samuel Ersson

Philadelphia Flyers

As already mentioned, Ersson would be an unlikely starter even if his statistics are a product of playing behind a looser Philadelphia team in the NHL than his Swedish counterparts, so we're keeping this tracking sample size and breakdown even tighter.

East-west indeed: The lateral slot-line plays so many teams and players try to create in today's NHL really have been a challenge for Ersson, representing 17 goals (34.0 percent) in this 50-goal tracked sample, well above the 22.1 percent average. Of course, part of that is seeing tougher chances behind the Flyers, with nine of the 17 in tight below the hash marks and three on plays that went back and forth across the slot line twice, where the end result is a goal almost half the time.

Traffic and tips: Screen goals were the next highest total at 11 (22.0 percent), and again, he didn't get a lot of help, with almost half including being screened by his own defenders (three) or his own defenders contributing to more difficult layered screens (two). Add in three goals off deflections, two including traffic, and getting in Ersson's sightline is a good idea.