Each Friday during the season, NHL.com director, senior fantasy editor Pete Jensen will take a look at the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, he dives into Minnesota Wild forward Kirill Kaprizov’s dominant start to the season.
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Minnesota Wild forward Kirill Kaprizov, well-known as one of the NHL’s elite players, has taken his game to another level during the first month of this season. Kaprizov’s League-leading surface-level metrics, together with his robust advanced stats profile, has him as an early contender for the Hart Trophy, given to the player voted most valuable to his team.
Kaprizov leads the NHL in points per game (1.85) and even-strength points (17). He ranks second in points (24 in 13 games), behind Colorado Avalanche center Nathan MacKinnon (25 in 14 games), who was last season’s Hart Trophy winner, and third in assists (17) behind MacKinnon (19) and his defenseman teammate Cale Makar (18).
Per NHL EDGE stats, Kaprizov is among the League leaders in total skating distance at even strength (39.46 miles; 94th percentile) and on the power play (8.19 miles; 98th percentile). He also has excelled in EDGE stats like top shot speed (91.58 mph; 85th percentile) and offensive zone time percentage at all strengths (45.8 percent; 91st percentile).
The Wild, who missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs last season, are leading the NHL in 5-on-5 shooting percentage plus save percentage (104.3), a metric that sometimes suggests a hot start may not be sustainable. Minnesota ranks in the middle of the pack in shot attempts percentage (49.6 percent; 18th), but No. 1 goalie Filip Gustavsson is tied for fifth in the League in wins (six in nine games) and ranks ninth in save percentage (.917; minimum five games).
But the likelihood of at least some regression on either or both ends of the ice could help Kaprizov build the narrative that, if his offensive dominance still carries the Wild, who have never had a Hart Trophy finalist, to the postseason, he could easily finish in the top three for the award -- and potentially win it.
And the pedigree of being a three-time 40-goal scorer (career high: 47 in 2021-22) and two-time 90-plus point producer (career-high: 108 in 2021-22) means Kaprizov also could be a contender for the Art Ross (NHL leader in points) and Maurice Richard (leader in goals) trophies as well, and either of those accomplishments would boost his Hart Trophy case. Kaprizov’s shooting percentage through 13 games (19.4 percent) only slightly is above his NHL career average (16.4 percent).
Kaprizov has proven chemistry with his opposite wing, Mats Zuccarello. The 37-year-old also has strong EDGE metrics in offensive zone time percentage at all strengths (45.1 percent; 87th percentile), high-danger goals (three; 88th percentile) and average shot speed (65.78 miles per hour; 80th percentile) by association to Kaprizov.
