NHL EDGE stats: Kaprizov building early Hart Trophy case

Each Friday during the season, NHL.com director, senior fantasy editor Pete Jensen will take a look at the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, he dives into Minnesota Wild forward Kirill Kaprizov’s dominant start to the season.

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Minnesota Wild forward Kirill Kaprizov, well-known as one of the NHL’s elite players, has taken his game to another level during the first month of this season. Kaprizov’s League-leading surface-level metrics, together with his robust advanced stats profile, has him as an early contender for the Hart Trophy, given to the player voted most valuable to his team.

Kaprizov leads the NHL in points per game (1.85) and even-strength points (17). He ranks second in points (24 in 13 games), behind Colorado Avalanche center Nathan MacKinnon (25 in 14 games), who was last season’s Hart Trophy winner, and third in assists (17) behind MacKinnon (19) and his defenseman teammate Cale Makar (18).

Per NHL EDGE stats, Kaprizov is among the League leaders in total skating distance at even strength (39.46 miles; 94th percentile) and on the power play (8.19 miles; 98th percentile). He also has excelled in EDGE stats like top shot speed (91.58 mph; 85th percentile) and offensive zone time percentage at all strengths (45.8 percent; 91st percentile).

The Wild, who missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs last season, are leading the NHL in 5-on-5 shooting percentage plus save percentage (104.3), a metric that sometimes suggests a hot start may not be sustainable. Minnesota ranks in the middle of the pack in shot attempts percentage (49.6 percent; 18th), but No. 1 goalie Filip Gustavsson is tied for fifth in the League in wins (six in nine games) and ranks ninth in save percentage (.917; minimum five games).

But the likelihood of at least some regression on either or both ends of the ice could help Kaprizov build the narrative that, if his offensive dominance still carries the Wild (who have never had a Hart Trophy finalist) to the postseason, he could easily finish in the top three for the award -- and potentially win it.

And the pedigree of being a three-time 40-goal scorer (career high: 47 in 2021-22) and two-time 90-plus point producer (career-high: 108 in 2021-22) means Kaprizov also could be a contender for the Art Ross (NHL leader in points) and Maurice Richard (leader in goals) trophies as well, and either of those accomplishments would boost his Hart Trophy case. Kaprizov’s shooting percentage through 13 games (19.4 percent) is only slightly above his career average (16.4 percent).

Kaprizov has proven chemistry with his opposite wing, Mats Zuccarello. The 37-year-old also has strong EDGE metrics in offensive zone time percentage at all strengths (45.1 percent; 87th percentile), high-danger goals (three; 88th percentile) and average shot speed (65.78 miles per hour; 80th percentile) by association to Kaprizov.

But while Kaprizov, 27, unequivocally is the Wild’s best player, he has a promising young core of skaters thriving by his side early on this season. His frequent center, Marco Rossi, is showing signs of a breakout season (11 points in 13 games) and is among the EDGE leaders in high-danger shots on goal (11; 85th percentile).

Usually on a separate line at even strength, forward Matt Boldy also has taken his performance to new heights; he is averaging more than 1.00 points per game (15 in 13 games) and ranks just outside the top 10 in goals (eight; tied for 11th in NHL) and shots on goal (49; 13th in League; leads Wild ahead of Kaprizov’s 36). In terms of power-play goals, only Brayden Point of the Tampa Bay Lightning and Dylan Larkin of the Detroit Red Wings (five each) have scored more than Boldy (four; tied for third).

Center Joel Eriksson Ek, who missed two games because of a broken nose earlier in the season but is back playing on the second line with Boldy and the first power play with Kaprizov, Boldy and Zuccarello, is tied with Rossi in high-danger shots on goal and ranks in the 96th percentile in midrange goals (three).

Then factor in young defenseman Brock Faber (finalist for Calder Trophy last season), a healthy first defense pair of veterans Jared Spurgeon and Jonas Brodin and top goalie prospect Jesper Wallstedt (currently playing for Iowa in American Hockey League) and the Wild have plenty of new wrinkles this season as a playoff contender and an even brighter future. Kaprizov ranks second on the Wild in shot attempts differential (plus-28) behind Spurgeon (plus-30), showing the defenseman’s recent return to the lineup from injury is important to their staying power.

But with a new contract on the horizon (potential unrestricted free agent after 2025-26 season), Kaprizov is at the top of his game and pushing for even more recognition as one of hockey’s superstars while lifting the Wild back into contention.

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More: NHL EDGE stats for Kirill Kaprizov

NHL EDGE stats for Minnesota Wild