Jets’ historic comeback against Canadiens fueled by puck possession, mid-range prowess

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we look at the advanced stats storylines behind the Winnipeg Jets’ four-goal comeback win against the Montreal Canadiens on Nov. 3.

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The Winnipeg Jets staged a comeback for the ages Tuesday, defeating the Montreal Canadiens 5-4 in overtime after trailing 4-0 with 2:39 left in regulation.

“That’s a long, hard stretch, but this group believed in each other,” said Jets forward Tyrel Bauer, whose first NHL career goal at 17:21 of the third period started the comeback. “We’re proud of that. We had each other’s backs in that room, you know? The guys had my back on the ice tonight. I mean, I blacked out for the rest of it, but that was fun. We needed that as a group. We’re going to run with that and we’re not looking back.”

Morgan Barron made it a 4-2 game at 18:03, then Kyle Connor scored at 19:00 and 19:27 to send it overtime, where Dylan Samberg won it at 3:30.

Prior to Winnipeg's improbable comeback, teams had an all-time record of 0-10,299-0 (regular season and Stanley Cup Playoffs combined) when facing a deficit of at least four goals in the final three minutes of regulation.

The Jets, who hadn't won since Oct. 13 (0-7-2), became the second team in NHL history to end a skid of nine or more games by overcoming a four-goal deficit. The only other team to do so was the Pittsburgh Penguins on Oct. 27, 2005, against the Atlanta Thrashers.

The comeback was historic and shocking, and looking at the Jets’ advanced stats, specifically their puck-possession leading up to the comeback, provides a glimpse into what fueled the historic rally.

Here are three underlying metrics storylines behind Winnipeg’s epic comeback:

1. Puck-possession metrics

Despite trailing 4-0 in the game, the Jets tilted the ice in their favor by a margin of 36:05 to 23:55 in regulation. Per NHL EDGE IQ, ”Ice Tilt” quantifies territorial momentum based on which team has the advantage (and by what margin) at any given point during game play.

In terms of 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage, the Jets also had a clear advantage in the game, outchancing the Canadiens by a 57.6 to 42.4 percent margin. Defenseman Tyrel Bauer scored the Jets' first goal of the game at 17:21 of the third period, and another defenseman in Samberg completed Winnipeg’s eventual comeback victory.

The Jets also had a commanding advantage in terms of overall shot attempts (87-47) and shots on goal (47-22) in the game. Winnipeg scored its third and fourth goals with an extra attacker late in the third period, but the first two goals of the game came at 5-on-5 and rewarded the Jets for their strong puck-possession metrics earlier in the game.

NHL EDGE IQ insights 📊: In terms of offense off the rush (within five seconds of puck crossing offensive blue line), the Jets had a 17-6 advantage in shot attempts and 9-0 advantage in scoring chances over the Canadiens in the game. 

2. Samberg’s overtime goal

The Jets, who have been playing without their top defenseman Josh Morrissey, received a huge lift from Samberg, who scored the first game-winning goal by a Winnipeg defenseman this season; the team only had four game-winning goals scored by defensemen all of last season (tied for 28th out of 32 teams).

NHL EDGE IQ insights 📊: In terms of Projected Goal Rate (PGR), Samberg’s goal had the highest PGR (10.07 percent) of Winnipeg’s five goals in the game, making it the highest-probability attempt on any of their goals. The lowest-probability attempt among the Jets’ goals in the game came on forward Kyle Connor’s game-tying, power-play goal with 33 seconds remaining in the third period.

This marked the third time this season the Jets had goals scored by two different defensemen in the same game (also: Oct. 29 vs Lightning, Oct. 2 vs Bruins); Samberg has been involved in the past two instances.

3. Mid-range prowess

All five of Winnipeg's goals from its comeback win were mid-range goals, with two of them scored by Connor, who is the Jets' leading goal-scorer (13; tied for second in entire NHL behind Kirill Kaprizov’s 15) and point producer (17 in 16 games) this season. Connor is tied for fourth in the entire NHL in mid-range shots on goal (25) this season and tied for third in mid-range goals (five).

Forward Morgan Barron had his first multipoint game of the season (one goal, one assist) and added six shots on goal (tied for second on team in game behind Connor’s eight). Barron’s goal, which was the second of Winnipeg’s five unanswered in the game, had a shot speed of 89.10 mph, which was his hardest shot attempt of the season, the second-hardest shot resulting in a goal by a Jets player this season (behind Neal Pionk’s 89.93 mph against Chicago Blackhawks on Oct. 15) and the hardest shot resulting in a goal of any game across the NHL during the month of November.

Winnipeg’s array of mid-range goals came against Montreal rookie goalie Jacob Fowler, who had previously won seven straight games and was named rookie of the month for October. Fowler stopped the first eight mid-range shots on goal he faced against Winnipeg before the Jets scored five mid-range goals on their final eight mid-range shots on goal. Entering the game against the Jets, Fowler ranked second in the NHL in mid-range save percentage (.967) this season.

Barron’s mid-range goal was the second-hardest shot resulting in a goal against Fowler this season; only Penguins defenseman Erik Karlsson (90.54 mph on Oct. 31) scored on a harder shot against Fowler. Fowler stopped all 13 high-danger shots faced in the game against the Jets, making Winnipeg’s comeback even more improbable considering the team had to score all five of its goals from perimeter regions of the ice.

PGR of Jets’ five mid-range goals vs. Canadiens:

• Bauer (third period): 4.00% (low-probability)
• Barron (third): 5.57%
• Connor (third): 6.45%
• Connor (third): 1.53% (low-probability)
• Samberg (overtime): 10.07%