Maurice 'Rocket' Richard Trophy winner debated by NHL.com writers

The 2023-24 NHL season begins Oct. 10 with a tripleheader on ESPN. To celebrate the start of the season, NHL.com writers and editors are debating who they think will win some of the League’s major awards. Today, the Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy, an annual award presented to the player finishing the regular season as the League's goal-scoring leader.

Sixty is the new 40 when it comes to NHL goal-scoring. The past two winners of the Maurice "Rocket" Richard Trophy hit the 60-goal plateau, with Connor McDavid of the Edmonton Oilers leading the NHL with 64 goals last season, and Auston Matthews of the Toronto Maple Leafs scoring a League-high 60 in 2021-22.

Before that, the last winner of the award to go over 50 was Washington Capitals forward Alex Ovechkin with 51 in 2018-19.

How many goals will it take to win the Richard this year, and who will be left standing as the leader when the season is over?

Here is who our writers picked:

Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs

Matthews led the NHL in goals in 2020-21 (41 in 52 games) and again in 2021-22 (60 in 73 games) before a minor blip last season. That minor blip was still a 40-goal season. The issue is those 40 goals were only good for a tie for 14th in the NHL last season. Goal-scoring is up, and Matthews will be back to form this season. He is the NHL’s leader in goals in the past four seasons with 188 in 269 games. He is also second in shots on goal in that span with 1,187, two behind Nathan MacKinnon’s 1,189. Matthews’ game won’t change. The key will be his shooting percentage. He scored 148 goals shooting 17.2 percent from 2019-22. He dropped to 12.2 percent last season. Matthews was a career 16.4 percent shooter before last season. If he cranks it back up to closer to 17 percent this season, he’ll win the Rocket Richard Trophy for a third time in four seasons. -- Dan Rosen, senior writer

Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers

McDavid became the first player since Alex Ovechkin in 2007-08 to win the scoring title and score the most goals. McDavid had an NHL career-high 64 goals and 153 points (92 assists) last season. He said teammate Leon Draisaitl told him before the season that 60 goals was attainable if he shot the puck more often. McDavid took on the challenge and finished with three more goals than David Pastrnak (61) of the Boston Bruins and nine more than Mikko Rantanen (55) of the Colorado Avalanche. It is not unreasonable to believe McDavid will improve on his goal total this season, particularly if the Oilers continue to score at the pace they did last season, leading the League with 325 goals. And if the power play again connects at a record pace (32.4 percent), it’s possible McDavid could challenge the 70-goal plateau for the first time since Alexander Mogilny of the Buffalo Sabres and Teemu Selanne each had 76 in 1992-93. -- Derek Van Diest, staff writer

Alex Ovechkin, Washington Capitals

Ovechkin still has some goal-scoring magic left in him, maybe even enough to win the Richard again. The Capitals left wing has won it an NHL record nine times, including most recently in 2019-20 when he shared it with Pastrnak by scoring 48 goals. Bobby Hull is the only other player to lead the League in goals as many as seven times. Ovechkin is 38 and beginning his 19th NHL season but remains an elite scorer. He led Washington with 42 goals last season despite playing through a lower-body injury in the second half of the season and missing time following the death of his father. Ovechkin is second in NHL history with 822 goals. He probably won’t score the 73 goals he needs to surpass Wayne Gretzky’s NHL record of 894 goals this season, but never count him out in the Rocket race. -- Tom Gulitti, staff writer

David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins

I don’t think I’m going out on a limb believing that Pastrnak is going to win the Richard this season. Pastrnak, after all, tied with Ovechkin for the award in 2020, when they each scored 48 goals in a COVID-shortened season. He finished second to McDavid last season, topping 60 goals for the first time in his career with 61 to McDavid’s 64. And this season, Pastrnak will be relied on to be a driver on a team that lost a significant chunk of its offense with the retirements of centers Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci this offseason. It looks likely that Pastrnak will have an emerging Pavel Zacha as his center, with the two finding some chemistry last season. The 27-year-old seems to be entering his prime at the same time that he’s being tasked with leading a team that finished last season in disappointment. The Bruins will be on his back -- and he’s ready to carry them. – Amalie Benjamin, staff writer

Mikko Rantanen, Colorado Avalanche

I might be reaching a bit here, but Rantanen ranked third in the NHL last season with an NHL career-high 55 goals in a season when usual center Nathan MacKinnon missed 11 games because of an upper-body injury. The 26-year-old is in the prime of his career and will benefit from the offseason acquisition of forward Jonathan Drouin, who signed a one-year contract on July 1. Drouin will likely serve as left wing on that talented top line with MacKinnon and Rantanen. The power and finesse of MacKinnon, and speed and playmaking ability of Drouin will give Rantanen even more opportunities to unleash his powerful shot this season. He not only is a threat on the power play, but at even strength, finishing second in the league with 42 even-strength goals. The thought here is Rantanen's consistent scoring last season was just the tip of the iceberg. -- Mike G. Morreale, staff writer

Jason Robertson, Dallas Stars

Robertson just keeps getting better. The 24-year-old forward flirted with NHL hardware as runner-up to Kirill Kaprizov for the Calder Trophy as the rookie of the year in 2021 after he had 45 points (17 goals, 28 assists) in 51 games. He jumped to 79 points (41 goals, 38 assists) in 74 games in 2021-22, and hit triple digits last season with 109 points (46 goals, 63 assists). His 46 goals were the most by a Dallas/Minnesota North Stars player since Mike Modano had 50 for the Stars in 1993-94, and the most points since Bobby Smith had 114 for the North Stars in 1981-82. Sure, surpassing McDavid or Draisaitl for the Richard Trophy is a tough task, but Robertson has shown he can score with the best of them. -- William Douglas, staff writer