Predators vs. Avalanche playoff preview

Nashville Predators vs. Colorado Avalanche

RELATED: [Complete Predators vs. Avalanche series coverage]

The skinny

The Colorado Avalanche couldn't have written a better script in their return to the Stanley Cup Playoffs. However, continuing their feel-good story won't be easy against the Nashville Predators.
The Predators won all four games against the Avalanche this season, outscoring them 17-8. They've been one of the League's best teams for more than a month, going 19-4-2 since Feb. 19, and went on to win the Presidents' Trophy for the first time.
"All year, we've talked about doing the best we can," Predators coach Peter Laviolette said. "It's always been about home ice and trying to stay in our building, giving ourselves the best chance to be successful in the playoffs. With that, those things happen. You end up winning the division, the conference and first place in the League. It's a long road when you play the 82 games, but the guys did an incredible job of staying focused and fairly consistent with their game. Because of it, we sit where we sit."

When the Avalanche won 10 straight games from Dec. 29-Jan. 22, it was a turning point. They played good hockey through most of the second half but were inconsistent late, going 4-5-1 in their final 10 games.
Much like the Predators last season, when they advanced to the Cup Final before losing to the Pittsburgh Penguins in six games, the Avalanche had to fight to qualify as the second wild card from the Western Conference and will be looking to have similar playoff success.
"They've been a great team all season, but they went in as the eighth seed last year and it just goes to show that once you get in it's a completely new season," Avalanche defenseman Mark Barberio said. "It's going to be a lot of hard work but this group is definitely up for it."

Game breaker

Avalanche: Center Nathan MacKinnon is a candidate for the Hart Trophy as League MVP. The 22-year-old became a bigger part of the leadership group and was a force on the ice, setting NHL career highs in goals (39), assists (58) and points (97). He scored the most points by an Avalanche player since Joe Sakic had 100 in 2006-07.

Predators:Defenseman P.K. Subban should get consideration for the Norris Trophy after another outstanding season. Part of a very deep defense, Subban set an NHL career high in goals (16) and finished with 59 points, one shy of a career high set in 2014-15. He also led the Predators with 25 power-play points.

X-factor

Avalanche:Defenseman Patrik Nemeth was claimed off waivers from the Dallas Stars on Oct. 3 and helped a defense that has missed Erik Johnson (upper body). Nemeth had 15 points (three goals, 12 assists) in 68 games, and his plus-27 rating was tied for 11th in the League.
Predators:Forward Ryan Hartman can play anywhere in the lineup, much like he did with the Chicago Blackhawks before they traded him Feb. 26. He's at his best as a third- or fourth-line option and, though he's known for his agitating style, he also has a good shot. General manager David Poile believes Hartman can be a difference maker in the playoffs. Hartman didn't get much of a chance to show that last year with the Blackhawks, who the Predators swept in the first round, but has the opportunity now.

Goaltending

Avalanche: Semyon Varlamov (24-16-6, 2.68 goals-against average, .920 save percentage) was a big part of the regular-season success but is out with a lower-body injury sustained against the Blackhawks on March 30. Jonathan Bernier (19-13-3, 2.85 GAA, .913 save percentage), who will start, had some great stretches earlier this season.
Predators: Pekka Rinne put together a season worthy of the Vezina Trophy, going 42-13-4 with a 2.31 goals-against average, .927 save percentage and a career-high eight shutouts. He won all four games against the Avalanche this season, allowing eight goals. Backup Juuse Saros played in two playoff games last season.

Numbers to know

Avalanche: The power play ranked eighth in the League (21.9 percent) and they scored at least one power-play goal in five straight games (7-for-14). It will be tested against the Predators, whose penalty kill ranked sixth in the League (81.9 percent).
Predators:They won 53.3 percent of their face-offs, tied with Philadelphia Flyers for the best among teams in the playoffs. Nashville will have a big advantage against Colorado, whose 44.2 face-off percentage was worst in the League.

They said it

"I mean, we surprised ourselves. After a 48-point season, we weren't expecting to make the playoffs. But as the season went on we realized how good we were. We were beating really good teams. It definitely feels good to be a cool story." -- Avalanche forward Nathan MacKinnon
"Every line has really contributed offensively and defensively. This is not a one-man show in any case. We're all here to work for each other and everyone's doing a good job of that."-- Predators forward Filip Forsberg

Will win if …

Avalanche:They get depth scoring. They have gotten consistent production from the top line of MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog (25 goals, 37 assists, 62 points) and Mikko Rantanen (29 goals, 55 assists, 84 points). With the Predators keying on that line, they'll need more from their bottom-six forwards.
Predators: They dominate special teams. In their four wins against the Avalanche, they scored four power-play goals on 16 opportunities and killed 19 of 21 penalties.

How they look

Avalanche Projected lineup

Gabriel Landeskog -- Nathan MacKinnon -- Mikko Rantanen
Tyson Jost -- Alex Kerfoot -- Sven Andrighetto
Matt Nieto -- Carl Soderberg -- Blake Comeau
Colin Wilson -- J.T. Compher -- Gabriel Bourque
Nikita Zadorov -- Tyson Barrie
Patrik Nemeth -- Samuel Girard
Mark Barberio -- Mark Alt
Jonathan Bernier
Andrew Hammond
Scratched:David Warsofsky, Duncan Siemens, Dominic Tonnato, Anton Lindholm, Nail Yakupov, Vladislav Kamenev.
Injured:Erik Johnson (upper body), Semyon Varlamov (lower body)

Predators projected lineup

Filip Forsberg -- Ryan Johansen -- Viktor Arvidsson
Kevin Fiala -- Kyle Turris -- Craig Smith
Colton Sissons -- Nick Bonino -- Ryan Hartman
Scott Hartnell -- Mike Fisher -- Austin Watson
Roman Josi -- Ryan Ellis
Mattias Ekholm -- Matt Irwin
Alexei Emelin -- P.K. Subban
Pekka Rinne
Juuse Saros
Scratched:Eeli Tolvanen, Miikka Salomaki, Anthony Bitetto
Injured:Calle Jarnkrok (upper body), Yannick Weber (upper body)

Status report

Varlamov will not be available against the Predators. … Barberio played 20:30 against the St. Louis Blues on Saturday after missing 33 games with a lower-body injury. … Tolvanen, who signed on March 29, played three games on the top line. ... Wilson, who played eight seasons with the Predators before being traded to the Avalanche on July 1, had 18 points (six goals, 12 assists) in 56 games. … Jarnkrok, out since March 13, and Weber (March 24) skated Saturday. Fisher has been centering the fourth line since coming out of retirement and playing his first game March 2.