NHL.com’s fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we take a look at the advanced metrics behind Lucas Raymond’s consistent production this season and the Detroit Red Wings’ improvement under new coach Todd McLellan.
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The Detroit Red Wings have been carried by the offensive prowess of forward Lucas Raymond through thick and thin this season. Now, since the coaching change from Derek Lalonde to Todd McLellan, the improvement of his supporting cast has the Red Wings in contention to end their eight-season Stanley Cup Playoff drought.
Per NHL EDGE stats, Raymond leads the League in midrange goals this season (12; had nine such goals all of last season) and is in the 95th percentile in midrange shots on goal (44). Raymond also ranks highly among forwards in total skating distance (118.89 miles; 89th percentile) and top shot speed (89.87 miles per hour; 83rd percentile).
But, prior to the coaching change, Detroit was near the bottom of the Eastern Conference -- even with Raymond’s individual success. Under McLellan, the Red Wings are 5-1-0 through six games and suddenly only two points behind the Columbus Blue Jackets for the second wild card spot in the East with one game in hand -- and there’s still half of the season to go (the NHL’s midway point is Thursday, Jan. 9).
Raymond, who leads the Red Wings in points (42 in 40 games), assists (26), even-strength goals (12), even-strength points (21) and power-play points (20) this season, is tied with their captain and his frequent center linemate Dylan Larkin for Detroit’s most points under McLellan (each has nine in six games). The Red Wings have five players with at least a point per game since the coaching change (others: forwards Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat have eight points each in those six games; defenseman Moritz Seider has six assists in span).
Last season, Raymond also led Detroit in points (72 in 82 games), but his team finished tied with the Washington Capitals in the standings for the second wild card spot in the East and was eliminated on a tiebreaker. This season, Detroit’s elite power play, specifically under McLellan, could be the difference in qualifying for the postseason field.
After a 2-for-26 (7.7 percent) stretch with the man advantage over the final 10 games under Lalonde, the Red Wings have scored 10 power-play goals in 19 opportunities over the six games under McLellan (52.6 percent; second in NHL behind Blue Jackets’ 53.3 in span since Dec. 27), including multiple PPG in each of their past four games. Detroit has also become the first team to score at least one power-play goal in six straight games following an in-season coaching change since the Montreal Canadiens (under Michel Therrien) and Edmonton Oilers (Ralph Kruger) did so in 2012-13.
Detroit’s power-play conversion rate for the season has risen to third in the NHL (27.4) behind the Winnipeg Jets (32.0) and New Jersey Devils (28.9), and, per NHL EDGE stats, the Red Wings rank third in offensive zone time percentage on the power play (61.6) trailing only the New York Rangers (62.4) and Vegas Golden Knights (62.0).
The Red Wings have scored 44 times from midrange areas (tied for fifth in NHL) this season, and 13 of those midrange goals have come on the power play (second-most in League behind New Jersey’s 17). Over the Red Wings' past six games (since Dec. 27), they have scored six midrange power-play goals, two more than any other team over that span.
But although Detroit’s power play was already strong under Lalonde (22.5 percent; tied for 10th), perhaps the most notable improvement has been in the team’s shots on goal differential; it was worst in the NHL under Lalonde (minus-5.0 per game) and ranks 12th League-wide under McLellan (plus-1.5 per game). The Red Wings have also limited their giveaways per 60 minutes rate drastically under McLellan (11.42 since Dec. 27; sixth lowest in NHL) compared to under Lalonde (16.15 prior to coaching change; third most from start of season to holiday break).
There are still concerns surrounding the top-heavy Red Wings: their goaltending group (Alex Lyon, Cam Talbot, Ville Husso, Sebastian Cossa have appeared in games this season) ranks in the League’s bottom half in team save percentage (.891; 19th), and their 5-on-5 shot attempts percentage still has further room for improvement (47.0 under Lalonde, fourth worst in NHL; 49.3 under McLellan, 18th). But the spark from McLellan gives Detroit a better chance to rise above the pack of nine teams separated by seven points for the final postseason spot in the East.
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