NHL EDGE stats: Capitals outlook after Ovechkin injury

NHL.com’s fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we look at the outlook for the Washington Capitals after Alex Ovechkin’s injury.

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The Washington Capitals have been one of the NHL’s biggest surprises as we approach the one-quarter mark of the season. But after Alex Ovechkin sustained a fractured left fibula in their 6-2 win against the Utah Hockey Club on Monday and has been deemed out 4-6 weeks, the Capitals are tasked with navigating the foreseeable future without their captain and the second-best goal scorer of all time.

The Capitals are 13-4-1 in their first 18 games, and Ovechkin was leading the NHL lead in goals (15) and the top-ranked player in standard fantasy hockey leagues at the time of his injury. Ovechkin stands at 868 goals in 1,444 career games, only 26 behind Wayne Gretzky’s NHL record (894 in 1,487 games).

Entering games Wednesday, Washington sits atop the NHL in goals per game (4.33), and only the Winnipeg Jets have more points (32 in 19 games) than Washington (27 in 18 games; tied for second) and regulation wins (13) than the Capitals (12; tied for second). The Capitals have the third-best penalty kill percentage (87.7) and a solid goaltending tandem of Logan Thompson (8-0-1; acquired from Vegas Golden Knights in offseason) and Charlie Lindgren. But Ovechkin and Washington’s offense have been the driving force.

Per NHL EDGE stats, the Capitals rank outside the top 10 in shots on goal (519) and high-danger shots on goal (138) this season and are shooting a League-high 15.0 percent at all strengths and 14.8 percent at 5-on-5. Washington leads the NHL in midrange shooting percentage (18.2), ranks second from long-range (7.0), and sixth from high-danger areas (23.9); their forwards have the best long-range shooting rate (17.6 percent) and their defensemen lead the League in midrange (25.0) shooting percentage and are tied for the best high-danger shooting percentage (33.3) at the position.

Prior to the injury, Ovechkin had a career-high shooting rate (23.8 percent, 94th percentile; career average: 13.0); his previous high was 15.4 in 68 games during the 2019-20 season. Per NHL EDGE stats, Ovechkin has eight shots of at least 90 miles per hour this season, the second most among forwards behind Tage Thompson of the Buffalo Sabres (10), and his top shot speed (94.98 mph) ranks ninth at the position.

Plenty of Capitals are also having career shooting seasons; Connor McMichael has scored 12 goals (tied for fifth in NHL entering Wednesday), including 11 even-strength goals (tied for second in NHL behind Edmonton Oilers forward Leon Draisaitl’s 12). Per NHL EDGE stats, McMichael’s 23 high-danger shots on goal are tied for ninth in the entire League. He also ranks in the 88th percentile in top skating speed (22.79 mph) and 93rd percentile in 20-plus speed bursts (49).

While McMichael’s breakout seems real and has come on a separate line from Ovechkin, he’s one of seven Capitals players that has a shooting percentage north of 20.0 (leads Washington at 25.0), which may not be sustainable. Two of the other Capitals players with high shooting percentages include Ovechkin’s most-frequent linemates in wing Aliaksei Protas (24.1; 94th percentile) and center Dylan Strome (20.7; 86th percentile).

Strome and Protas are tied with each other in high-danger goals (four; 85th percentile) this season, each scoring one more than Ovechkin (three; 72nd percentile) from those prime areas. In terms of high-danger goals, only the Vegas Golden Knights (38), Florida Panthers (36) and New Jersey Devils (35; lead NHL with 192 high-danger shots on goal) have more than the Capitals (33) this season. Protas has also excelled in 20-plus mph speed bursts (33; 76th percentile).

While there could be some regression offensively from Strome and Protas, others could see a boost in ice time, especially on the power play. Ovechkin ranks fifth in the entire NHL in power-play ice time (total of 83:42) and is tied with Strome for Washington’s lead in power-play points with seven (had three in past three games and four in past five). The Capitals will certainly miss Ovechkin's midrange prowess; he is tied with four others for the NHL lead in midrange goals (six).

Center Pierre-Luc Dubois (acquired from Los Angeles Kings in offseason) and/or defenseman Jakob Chychrun (acquired from Ottawa Senators) could see more time on the top unit, but the player who could help fill Ovechkin’s void in the offense is Andrew Mangiapane. Washington has also recalled forward Ivan Miroshnichenko from Hershey of the American Hockey League after placing Ovechkin on injured reserve.

Mangiapane scored an NHL career-high 35 goals with the Calgary Flames in 2021-22 and now could move into the Capitals’ top six and possibly even fill in for Ovechkin on the top line and first power play; per NHL EDGE stats, Mangiapane was tied for fourth in the League in high-danger goals (27) during that breakout season.

Other highlights in advanced metrics from Washington’s secondary scorers include Dubois ranking among the leaders in top shot speed (88.27 mph; 83rd percentile), Chychrun being among the best in average shot speed (72.51 mph; 85th percentile) and Tom Wilson being an EDGE stats standout in top skating speed (23.22 mph; 97th percentile), 20-plus mph speed bursts (45; 91st percentile) and top shot speed (90.87 mph; 91st percentile).

Two metrics stacked against Washington during Ovechkin’s absence are the fact that they ranked in the bottom 10 in power-play percentage (16.4; 24th) and shot attempts percentage (48.6; 23rd) when he was healthy.

But it’s worth noting this year’s Capitals are built much differently than the team that squeaked into the Stanley Cup Playoffs last season. They are much improved in goal with Thompson and on defense with Chychrun and have the forward depth to overcome Ovechkin’s absence. But, make no mistake, this is unfamiliar territory for Washington as Ovechkin has only missed 59 games over his 20 NHL seasons; the Capitals are 26-29-4 in those games.

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