NHL.com’s fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we look at the advanced stats prowess of the Ottawa Senators this season.
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The Ottawa Senators, who have missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs the past seven seasons, are in the thick of the postseason race thanks to their strong underlying metrics.
Ottawa made some waves by acquiring goalie Linus Ullmark, who won the Vezina Trophy with the Boston Bruins in 2023, and hiring coach Travis Green during the offseason, but their core players staying healthy and collectively reaching their potential is a huge reason it appears to be taking that elusive next step.
The Senators, who play at the Calgary Flames on Thursday (9 p.m. ET; SNW, TSN5, RDS), have won six of their past seven games (6-1-0) and earned at least a point in nine of their past 11 (8-2-1) to vault themselves into the second wild card spot in the Eastern Conference (16-13-2; 34 points). Ottawa is looking to snap the third-longest active playoff drought in the NHL, behind the Buffalo Sabres (13 seasons) and Detroit Red Wings (eight).
Per NHL EDGE stats, the Senators rank seventh in 20-plus mile per hour speed bursts (772) and boast some of the League's fastest players. Forward Tim Stutzle has the fourth-most 20-plus mph speed bursts (162), while Josh Norris ranks ninth in max skating speed (23.76). Defenseman Jake Sanderson is third at his position in 20-plus mph speed bursts (68) behind Colton Parayko of the St. Louis Blues (75) and Cale Makar of the Colorado Avalanche (71).
Norris, one of five Senators players with double-digit goal totals (12; others: Brady Tkachuk: 15; Drake Batherson, Adam Gaudette: 13 each; Stutzle: 11) this season, has been a difference-maker after being limited to a combined 58 games during the prior two seasons because of injuries.
The Senators rank ninth in the NHL in shot attempts percentage at 5-on-5 (51.7) through their first 30 games of the season after being in the middle of the pack in the category last season (50.4 percent; 18th). Their offense is led by Tkachuk, who’s among the League leaders in high-danger shots on goal (43; tied for sixth) and midrange shots on goal (43; tied for sixth) this season. As a team, the Senators are third in midrange goals (38), trailing only the Columbus Blue Jackets (41) and New Jersey Devils (39).
Tkachuk, who ranks third in the NHL in shots on goal (125), also is an EDGE stats standout among forwards in top shot speed (93.10 mph; 93rd percentile) and offensive zone time percentage at all strengths (45.6; 89th percentile).
Ottawa’s power play ranks seventh in the League (25.7 percent) this season after finishing 23rd last season (18.0 percent). The improvement can be explained by the percentage of offensive zone time in those situations: this season, the Senators rank ninth in offensive zone time percentage while on the power play (59.4 percent) after being below average in the category last season (56.3).
But the biggest X-factor for Ottawa has been (and will continue to be) Ullmark, who struggled to start the season before his recent resurgence.
Senators goalies (Ullmark, Anton Forsberg, Mads Sogaard) ranked fifth-worst in team save percentage at 5-on-5 (.890) through their first 20 games, but Ullmark has helped them lead that category during the past 11 games (.947 5-on-5 save percentage since Nov. 25). Per NHL EDGE stats, Ullmark is tied for ninth in midrange save percentage (.917), a category he thrived in both last season and the season he won the Vezina.
Although Ottawa traded defenseman Jakob Chychrun to the Washington Capitals (one of most-surprising teams League-wide) in the offseason, having defenseman Thomas Chabot healthy this season has offset that departure. Chabot has played in all 31 games after missing significant time with injuries in each of the prior two seasons and ranks highly at his position in the following EDGE categories:
-Top skating speed: 22.34 mph (84th percentile)
-20-plus mph speed bursts: 31 (89th percentile)
-Total skating distance: 107.16 miles (94th percentile)
-Top shot speed: 96.35 mph (89th percentile)
-Midrange shots on goal: 17 (94th percentile)
-Long-range shots on goal: 35 (92nd percentile)
If the Senators’ skater group stays mostly healthy and continues to control possession in front of Ullmark, who’s more than capable of providing timely saves, Ottawa could rise above the other fringe playoff teams in the East. And Tkachuk, the Senators captain and best forward in the NHL yet to play a playoff game (through 471 games), finally could get a chance to show off his talents on the game’s biggest stage.
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