Each Friday during the season, NHL.com director, senior fantasy editor Pete Jensen will take a look at the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, he dives into the Washington Capitals’ surprising start to the season.
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The Washington Capitals have been one of the most-improved teams in the NHL over the first month of the season, and their advanced metrics show they could have staying power in the Metropolitan Division standings.
The Capitals, who have started 7-2-0, rank fourth in the NHL in shot attempts percentage (53.6), a metric that traditionally translates to Stanley Cup Playoff success. Washington qualified for the 2024 postseason, but this year’s team looks drastically different than the one that was swept by the New York Rangers in four games during the Eastern Conference First Round.
A combination of impactful offseason moves and the elevation of the organization’s young talent has the Capitals looking equipped to be a contender again – and help legendary forward Alex Ovechkin pursue the NHL’s all-time goal record. Ovechkin, who won the Stanley Cup with Washington in 2018, has scored five goals in nine games this season and is only trailing Wayne Gretzky’s career mark (894) by 36 goals (858).
Per NHL EDGE stats, Ovechkin still has one of the hardest shots out there; his top shot speed (94.67 miles per hour) ranks in the 95th percentile of the entire League and ninth among forwards. But the Capitals’ impressive run goes way beyond their captain.
Forward Connor McMichael, who made an impact down the stretch of last season playing mostly center during the Capitals’ playoff push, is showing signs of a full-fledged breakout on the wing with 10 points (five goals, five assists) and 27 shots on goal over his first nine games. Per EDGE stats, McMichael ranks in the 93rd percentile in top skating speed (22.79 mph) and is also among the League leaders in high-danger goals (three; 92nd percentile) and high-danger shots on goal (12; 94th percentile).
McMichael, 23, scored one goal on 10 shots on goal in the Capitals’ 5-3 home win against the Rangers on Tuesday, marking the highest single-game shots on goal output of the NHL season to date. And while McMichael has quickly found chemistry with Pierre-Luc Dubois (acquired from Los Angeles Kings) and healthy Tom Wilson, Ovechkin also has new wrinkles on his line.
Ovechkin, who has played mostly left wing in his illustrious career, is playing more often on the right side this season with his usual linemate from last season, center Dylan Strome. That line now features Aliaksei Protas, another 23-year-old who’s thriving early on this season. Protas has nine points (three goals, six assists) in nine games and, like McMichael, brings speed to the top six, ranking in the 78th percentile in bursts over 20 mph (18).
In addition to Dubois, Washington’s other offseason moves included trades for defenseman Jakob Chychrun (from Ottawa Senators), goalie Logan Thompson (from Vegas Golden Knights) and wing Andrew Mangiapane (from Calgary Flames); the Capitals also signed forward Jakub Vrana, who was on their 2018 championship team, to a one-year contract.
Chychrun, who did not play in the Capitals’ 6-3 home win against the Montreal Canadiens on Thursday because of an upper-body injury, has complemented veteran John Carlson nicely on the top defense pair when healthy and is among the EDGE leaders in top shot speed (90.57; 83rd percentile) and average shot speed (67.31 mph; 84th percentile).
The Capitals will need better goaltending from the tandem of Thompson and Charlie Lindgren (.876 team save percentage; seventh worst in NHL this season) to not only return to the postseason but make any noise. But it’s very encouraging that Washington is allowing the fewest shots on goal per game (24.1) in the League after being tied for the 11th most allowed (30.5) last regular season.
With some tweaks to their playing style and lineup under second-year coach Spencer Carbery after an influx of talent, the new-look Capitals are tied for the second-best points percentage (.778) in the NHL behind the Winnipeg Jets (.900) as the calendar turns to November.
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